Patriots Win Game, Division, 24-12

The Patriots took care of business, defeating their “little brother” Bills 24-12 in a game not quite that competitive. The win gave the Patriots the AFC East crown, and combined with Houston’s loss at Philly, the Pats will be the #2 playoff seed if they win next week. Speaking of which, the Jets come in with their young QB, hoping to play spoiler to the Pats playoff hopes.

I hope you didn’t get too depressed the last few weeks, when the local 11 lost back-to-back heartbreaking games. It appeared they were out of the running for a playoff Bye, but the win today changed all that. It’s unclear why people always assume other teams will win-out to knock the Patriots down, but once again, the Pats are kings of the AFC East, and have that week off in their sights.

They did it yesterday with the running game. Excepting the kneel-downs to finish the game, the Patriots rushed 45 times for 275 yards (6.1ypc), with rookie Sony Michel leading the way (18 for 116 and 6.4ypc) and Cordarrelle Patterson (4 for 66, and an eye-popping 16.5ypc!). The O-line plowed through the Buffalo defense, opening big holes and reaching the second and third levels to take out defenders. It was the most yards rushing in any Tom Brady start.

Brady himself was pedestrian, as were the receivers. Julian Edelman had two dropped passes, and Rob Gronkowski had one go through his hands that ended up being intercepted. On the day, Brady was 13 of 24 for 126 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs (all that despite being sacked just once and hit only twice).

The biggest problem in the passing game was that only five players were targeted. As stated in the past, Patriots post-season success often comes down to having a lot of receivers involved in the passing attack. It’s too easy to shut them down if the other team can key on one or two receivers — so they have to diversify their passing attack before the playoffs start.

Lost in all the angst of the last few weeks was how well the defense played against the Steelers. In four of the last five weeks, they have given up yards but held teams once they got inside the 20, giving up an average of just 13 points each to the Jets, Vikings, Steelers, and Bills.

They still aren’t as reliable as when former D-coordinator Matt Patricia was here, but new defensive signal-caller Brian Flores has improved as the year progressed. And believe it or not, it’s mostly about their discipline. They are playing their assignments better; keeping Buffalo’s running QB in check on Sunday.

Corners Jason McCourty and JC Jackson are playing better, as is safety Devin McCourty. The linebackers are still suspect, but the D-line looked a lot better against Buffalo. Trey Flowers is by far the best of their front seven, and he’s been helped by better play from Lawrence Guy and occasional good plays from Malcom Brown.

On special teams, the team had another blocked punt (Matthew Slater), but they also had really bad kickoff returns. In the third quarter, the Pats had three kickoff returns, and started at the 15, the 12, and the 12 yard lines. Not good, folks, not good.

Where does that leave us? Patriots won the division for the tenth year in a row. (Trivia question: what was the last season when an AFC East team won more games than the Patriots? Bonus question: can you name the team? Answers below.) The team is relatively healthy, and they if they beat the Jets next week, they will be home Wild Card Weekend. Note: Tom Brady is 13-2 at home as a starter against the NYJ in regular season play.

Biggest ongoing concern: It’s the stagnant passing offense. With Josh Gordon gone for the year, they have to find another option to take pressure off Gronkowski, Edelman, and the running backs. My suggestion is to use Chris Hogan, but either he or Phillip Dorsett needs to step up if the Pats expect to make much noise in the playoffs.

Non-Brady MVP: Running back Sony Michel, who now has more 100-yard games (4) than all other rookie running backs under Bill Belichick (3). The team is also 4-0 when Michel runs for at least 100 yards.

Statistical oddity: The Patriots tenth consecutive division title is the first time in NFL history a team has won at least ten straight. The only other team in major American sports history to do so was the the Atlanta Braves, who won 14 in a row

Water-cooler wisdom: “Two weeks ago, everything went against the Pats. Yesterday, everything went for them. Call me when that changes.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-5!

PPS. Trivia answers:
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In the 2000 season, the Miami Dolphins were 11-5 and the Patriots the opposite, finishing 5-11. The two seasons since then when the Patriots didn’t win the division (2002 and 2008), they finished tied with the Jets and Dolphins, respectively, and lost the crown on tiebreakers.