A surprising stat for Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ

An interesting stat was posted on Twitter(X) Thursday morning, involving Cubs outfielder Ian Happ and home run production in certain situations. Thomas Nestico of TJStats posted proportions of home runs hit in “higher leverage” situations across baseball. This is based on what FanGraphs considers medium and high leverage, combined.

Per the stat, Happ’s proportion of higher leverage home runs is 65%, or 15 of his 23 homers. He ranks eighth in that stat among all MLB players. Only eight of his 23 homers have been hit in what’s considered “low leverage” situations per the stat.

Proportion of Home Runs in Higher Leverage Situations pic.twitter.com/SFPS2xaUsI

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) August 27, 2026

This can come as a surprise, considering Happ’s recent reputation for not coming through in big moments. Even to Happ’s bigger fans, it could come as a surprise considering the rough patches he’s had this year. Few will deny it hasn’t been his best year, yet there still could be more to Happ than meets the eye.

Is Happ more clutch than we think?

It’s first important to note how FanGraphs defines low, medium, and high leverage. They use a stat called Leverage Index (LI), which gives a range of values representing the importance of moments in a game based on the score and situation. FanGraphs calculates this stat by measuring the potential swing in a team’s win expectancy (WE).

FanGraphs groups these values into ranges to determine leverage. Low leverage is 0 – 0.85, medium leverage is 0.85 – 2.0, and high leverage is 2.0+. The point being, it can be seen like WAR where it’s an arbitrary determination of value, with other platforms using slightly different variations of the stat. However, it gives a fair idea of players’ outcomes in certain situations.

Again, it’s no secret that Happ has had his RISP struggles this year, along with an increased strikeout rate and a decrease in average and OBP. However, he has still hit for power that has helped swing some games in the Cubs’ favor. He certainly did that last Sunday in Seattle with the eventual game-winning grand slam.

IAN HAPP GRAND SLAM! pic.twitter.com/G5U2YiUO7v

— MLB (@MLB) August 23, 2026

This stat does not give a medium vs. high leverage ratio, so that 65% is not all high leverage. Still, he’s produced more than in garbage time. Might want to keep him hitting from the left side only, though.

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