Battle Plans Week 1: Ravens at Colts

Sunday, September 13, 2026 | 1:00 p.m. ET | Lucas Oil Stadium

There’s no film on these Ravens. Not really.

Jesse Minter’s starters didn’t play in the preseason. Declan Doyle hasn’t called a regular-season snap in his life. The Ravens will snap the ball to Lamar Jackson with a center who has never started an NFL game, and they’ll do it against a Colts defense that is breaking in at least five new starters of its own. Week 1 is always a guessing game, but this one is a guessing game with two blindfolds.

What we do have is a track record. We know what Lamar has done against Lou Anarumo’s defenses. We know what Jonathan Taylor did to Minter’s Chargers last October. And we know where each roster looks thin on paper. That’s enough to draw up a plan.

The books like Baltimore by 3.5 with a total of 47.5, and ESPN’s FPI gives the Ravens roughly a 60 percent chance to win. Four of NFL.com’s five staff pickers took the Ravens, with Gennaro Filice the lone Colts vote at 21-20. Here’s how Baltimore makes the favorites look right.

1. Make Anarumo defend his own history

This is the storyline everyone in Owings Mills has circled. Anarumo spent years running the Bengals’ defense, and Lamar has had his number lately. Per ESPN’s Jamison Hensley, Jackson has thrown 10 touchdowns against just two interceptions over his last four games against Anarumo-coached defenses, averaging 258.5 passing yards.

Doyle knows the challenge. He told reporters this week that Anarumo is good at keeping an offense off balance, and noted it’s a lot like how the Ravens want to attack defenses themselves. That’s the chess match: two coordinators who both want to dictate terms.

The edge for Baltimore is the unknown. Anarumo has years of tape on Lamar, but none on Lamar in this offense. The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec made a similar point in his pick, arguing the element of surprise could work in the Ravens’ favor. The Ravens should lean into that early. Show Anarumo formations and motions he hasn’t prepped for, force him to burn timeouts or simplify his calls, and make his new-look defense communicate under stress.

2. Build the house on Derrick Henry and play-action

Doyle spent most of his career under Sean Payton in New Orleans and Denver before a year under Ben Johnson in Chicago, per NFL.com. ESPN’s preseason preview projected a play-action-heavy system for Jackson, and the Baltimore Sun has documented Lamar’s reworked footwork under the new staff.

None of that works without the run game establishing a threat, and the Ravens have the right man for it. Henry enters his age-32 season coming off his fourth straight year finishing second in the league in rushing, and ESPN notes his 5.20 yards per carry ranked fifth among qualified backs in 2025. His 24 carries inside the 5-yard line led the NFL by a wide margin.

The plan here is simple: make the Colts overcommit to Henry, pull the linebackers downhill with play-action and then throw behind them. A Colts defense that ESPN’s Pam Maldonado described as already one of the league’s worst at stopping opponents from moving the ball is now integrating a batch of new starters. Play-action punishes eyes in the wrong place, and new pieces are those most likely to get caught peeking.

3. Get the ball out on time and protect the middle

Here’s the uncomfortable part. PFF ranks the Ravens’ offensive line 24th entering the season. Olaivavega Ioane is a rookie at right guard, John Simpson has only one career season with a PFF grade above 60.0, and Jovaughn Gwyn is making his first start at center (more on that below). PFF also flagged that Baltimore’s guards combined for a 55.2 grade in 2025, sixth-worst in the league.

Doyle can’t call a game plan that asks this interior to hold up for seven-step drops all afternoon. Mix in quick game, move the launch point with boots, and let the new footwork timing do its job — the ball comes out when the back foot hits. The less time Lamar spends waiting on the interior to win, the less the Colts’ front can impact this game.

4. Spread it around if Zay is managed

Zay Flowers has been a bit limited in practice this week with a hamstring issue, though he told reporters he hoped to be a full go by the end of the week. Check the final injury designations before kickoff. Even if Flowers plays his normal snaps, the Ravens shouldn’t force-feed him coming off a soft-tissue issue. Use the backs, the tight ends, and the motion game to spread touches, and keep Flowers fresh for the moments that matter.

1. Tackle Jonathan Taylor

Minter doesn’t need a reminder of Week 7 last season, but here it is anyway. The Colts hung 38 on his Chargers — the most points that Los Angeles defense allowed all year — and Taylor ran for 94 yards and three scores on 16 carries. The detail that should haunt the Ravens’ film room: according to ESPN, Taylor wasn’t touched on any of his three touchdown runs, which went for 23, 8 and 19 yards. The Colts led 23-3 at halftime.

This is also the first time the Ravens’ defensive starters will tackle live since last season. Tackling rust is real in Week 1, and Taylor is the worst possible back to face with it. Gap integrity has to be perfect, the second level has to fit fast, and the Ravens have to swarm rather than rely on one guy making a clean solo tackle. Madubuike being ruled out doesn’t help matters.

2. Beware of Taylor as a receiver, too

Here’s a sneaky one from ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder: no team played more zone coverage last season than Minter’s Chargers, and running backs catch passes against zone at a much higher rate than against man. Taylor ranked in the top 10 among backs in routes, targets, catches and receiving yards in 2025, all career highs. If the Ravens sit in zone, Jones will check it down to his best player and dare the Ravens to tackle him in space. Short completions are fine. Short completions that turn into 15-yard gains are not. Rally, wrap, and get him on the ground.

3. Test Daniel Jones‘ comfort early

Jones is playing his first game since tearing his Achilles in December. ESPN’s fantasy profile noted Taylor averaged 24.8 fantasy points with Jones last season and just 12.9 without him — a pretty clear illustration of how much the whole offense runs through the quarterback being right.

The Ravens spent big to fix a pass rush that produced only 30 sacks in 2025, tied for the second-fewest in franchise history. Trey Hendrickson led the NFL with 17.5 sacks in 2024. Minter needs rushers who can win one-on-one so he doesn’t have to send extra bodies, which frees him to play his exotic coverages behind a four-man rush.

The caution flag is the Colts’ offensive line. PFF ranks Indianapolis fourth in the NFL, with Quenton Nelson coming off an 84.7 grade and Bernhard Raimann anchoring the left side. The more realistic target is right tackle Jalen Travis, who PFF notes started only the Colts’ final four games as a rookie before taking over the full-time job this year. Whenever Minter can get Hendrickson aligned against that young right tackle, he should hunt that matchup.

4. Let Kyle Hamilton be Derwin James

Minter’s usage of Derwin James was central to his Chargers turnaround, and now he has Kyle Hamilton, an All-Pro for three straight seasons. Against a Colts offense built on Taylor and play-action, Hamilton’s versatility is the answer. Walk him down as an extra run fitter on early downs, rotate him into underneath zones on passing downs, and use him to disguise what’s coming post-snap. Jones hasn’t seen live bullets in nine months. Make him decode a pre-snap picture that changes after the snap.

Every Ravens game plan above runs through the middle of the offensive line, and the middle of the offensive line runs through a player who has never started an NFL game.

The backstory. Former Colt Danny Pinter looked like the frontrunner to replace Tyler Linderbaum until a season-ending injury in August. Minter went with Gwyn over veteran Ethan Pocic, who has 97 career starts but is only nine months removed from an Achilles tear. Minter called it “a Week 1 decision” and made clear it isn’t necessarily permanent.

The opponent. DeForest Buckner is back for Indianapolis after season-ending neck surgery in 2025. He’s the veteran anchor of a front that’s otherwise working in new pieces.

Why it matters for the Ravens. A center’s job goes well beyond the man lined up over him. Gwyn has to set protections, identify pressure alongside Lamar, handle stunts and games inside, and pass rushers off cleanly to a rookie right guard in Ioane and a veteran left guard in Simpson. Buckner won’t sit over Gwyn’s nose every snap, but whenever he aligns inside, loops on a stunt, or draws a double-team, the center is involved. Against a coordinator in Anarumo who knows Lamar well enough to try to confuse the front rather than beat it straight up, Gwyn’s pre-snap brain matters as much as his anchor.

It also matters for the plan Doyle wants to run. Under-center play-action means Lamar turns his back to the defense. If interior pressure arrives before he finishes the fake, the whole concept breaks down. Henry’s runs between the tackles need a center who can climb to the second level or hold a combo block long enough for the guard to work up.

What winning looks like for Gwyn:

• No free runners up the middle on pressure looks. Protection busts are worse than lost reps.
• Holding his ground on the combo blocks that spring Henry, so Buckner doesn’t blow up runs in the backfield.
• Clean snaps and communication in a loud dome. No false starts, no rushed operation.
• Enough interior stability that Lamar can step up in the pocket instead of bailing early.

What winning looks like for Buckner:

• Early penetration that disrupts Lamar’s new drop timing.
• Collapsing the pocket on third down and forcing Jackson to escape to his left or right before the route concepts develop.
• Eating double-teams so the Colts’ new linebackers can run free to Henry.

The verdict. If Gwyn plays to a draw, the Ravens’ offense should find its footing against a defense in transition. If Buckner wins this matchup, Baltimore’s first regular season game under Doyle could look a lot more like the stalled offense of last October than the reinvention everyone saw hinted at in camp. Gwyn has one start to show Minter that “Week 1 decision” can become a permanent one.

The Ravens have the better quarterback history in this matchup, the better defense on paper, and a head coach who has a very specific score to settle with this Colts offense. Indianapolis has the better offensive line, the most dangerous skill player on the field in Taylor, and home-field advantage for a team desperate to erase last season’s finish.

For Baltimore, the recipe is Henry to set it up, Lamar to cash it in, the interior to survive, and a swarming defense that finally gets Taylor on the ground before he gets to the second level. Do those four things, and the Minter era starts 1-0.

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