How Have the Bears’ Opening Weeks Changed the Betting Markets

The Chicago Bears entered the 2026 season with some serious expectations behind them. An 11-6 record and an NFC North title in 2025 was seen as a platform to build on for a better season this year. Now approaching Game Week 3, how has that early market opinion shaped out?

After a crushing victory in Week 1, the markets were buoyant on the Bears – but just a week later a big injury (and potentially a quarterback crisis in the works) as well as a limp, losing performance in Week 2 have changed their trajectory considerably. While the season is still early doors, betting markets can swing quickly. This is how they have reacted to the Chicago Bears’ season so far.

Preseason Expectations and Opinion

The US sports betting market is huge, and with billions of dollars on the line each season, who knows better about predicting the NFL than sportsbooks?

Consider the details here on this page of US sportsbook reviews by Covers. These resources show just how much competition and interest there is in the market, with bettors who are willing to do the research on odds, wagering choice and bonus offers before making a decision.

Given all that, sportsbooks know that mispriced odds can potentially lose them a lot of money to sharp bettors. So it’s interesting to see how the Chicago Bears’ odds have evolved since the preseason.

The Bears had a wide range of opinions on their chances of going all the way and winning Super Bowl LXI in early 2027. Some sportsbooks priced them as wide as +4000 or around 2.4% implied while others had them around +2000 or around 4.8% implied.

Interestingly, prediction market traders had a more positive opinion on the Bears’ preseason than sportsbooks. Chicago peaked at 7% on the Super Bowl winners market at Kalshi, although prices have since converged given the results of the opening weeks.

Week 1 Exceeded Expectations – and Futures Markets Reacted

In Week 1 the Bears scored 59 points in a convincing attacking display to seal a road victory against the Carolina Panthers. This pushed their stock higher with the betting markets, although not as much at prediction markets.

Opinion was possibly tempered by the shaky looking defence that contributed to the game being the highest scoring season-opener in NFL history. The 37-59 victory for the Bears totalled 96 points – 8 more than the previous record of 88 set by Tampa Bay and New Orleans in 2018.

Caleb Williams’ strong performance, throwing two touchdowns and rushing two more, seemed to vindicate the opinion that his form would be key to the Bears’ early season. He inspired the attacking line to a new franchise record for points in a season opener, breaking a record that had been held since 1948.

As well as Williams looking like an MVP candidate already according to ESPN, D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai both also looked sharp. The former rushed 128 yards and three touchdowns, while Monangai hit a 61 yard touchdown burst late on.

As well as a slight shortening on futures, including projected wins and Super Bowl odds, Williams’ odds of being league MVP also shortened considerably.

Week 2 Reversed Some of the Upward Momentum

After the hectic free-scoring Week One, the Bears’ 9-3 defeat to the Minnesota Vikings in Week Two was a shock for most fans.

Before the game the Bears opened at around -200 across most sportsbooks, an implied probability of 68.6%. Not much had been expected of Minnesota in 2026, coming off the back of a poor pre-season, and even their own high-scoring victory over the Packers in Week One couldn’t convince sportsbooks or markets they were good for a win in Chicago.

That was proved very wrong in a cagey affair at Soldier Field, with just two touchdowns across the whole game. The big news for betting markets though, was the hamstring injury to Williams. While one loss or win might not shift the betting markets hugely – an injury to an early MVP candidate and clear star player definitely will.

Caleb Williams’ Injury and Comeback Will Dominate Market Opinion Until Settled

Before his injury and the Bears’ loss, Williams was trading at a 13% chance to be league MVP – which is impressive even at this early stage of the season. At that point only Josh Allen and Brock Purdy were ahead of him. However, after Week Two Williams is now down to 6% according to the market.

Although he has apparently avoided a major long-term injury, he is week-to-week on assessment right now according to coach Ben Johnson.

As well as long term futures for him and the Bears, after the result and injury Chicago immediately went from short favorite to slight underdog in their scheduled Week 3 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.

To make matters worse backup QB Tyson Bagent has been hit with a concussion protocol after a training incident. That leaves third-string veteran QB Case Keenum with potentially a surprise start coming up, after last playing an NFL game in 2023. This lengthened Chicago’s odds even further, although some might argue Keenum is a more experienced QB than Bagent in these situations.

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