Core Producer Prices Cooler Than Expected In April, Goods Costs Jump Most On Record

After yesterday’s mixed bag from consumer prices (headline in-line but core cooler than expected and goods deflating), US Producer Prices were expected to keep accelerating higher (on a YoY basis) in May and they did… by more than expected.

Headline PPI rose 1.1% MoM in May (much hotter than the 0.7% MoM exp) but April’s 1.4% MoM rise was revised down to +1.1% MoM. This left producer prices up 6.5% YoY (vs 6.4% exp and up from revised lower 5.7% in April)…

Source: Bloomberg

Services costs are the biggest contributor to the rise in the headline print…

And, echoing CPI, Core PPI (ex Food and Energy) printed cooler than expected at +0.4% MoM (+0.5% exp) with core PPI up 4.9% YoY (well below the 5.4% YoY exp and flat with April’s revised lower 4.9%)…

Source: Bloomberg

PPI details:

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 2.8% in May, the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. 80% of the broad-based advance can be traced to a 10.7-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also rose, 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.

• Product detail: Over half of the May advance in prices for final demand goods is attributable to a 23.4% increase in the index for gasoline. Prices for diesel fuel, jet fuel, plastic resins and materials, industrial chemicals, and natural gas liquids also rose. In contrast, the index for pork fell 10.1 percent. Prices for residential electric power and for sanitary paper products also declined.

Final demand services: The index for final demand services moved up 0.3% in May following a 0.7% advance in April. Leading the May increase, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing rose 0.7%. The index for final demand transportation and warehousing services moved up 2.6 percent. Conversely, margins for final demand trade services decreased 1.1 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers).

• Product detail: Over 40% of the May advance in the index for final demand services can be traced to a 4.8-percent rise in prices for portfolio management. The indexes for truck transportation of freight; securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; chemicals and allied products wholesaling; food wholesaling; and airline passenger services also increased. In contrast, margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling fell 1.9 percent. The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing and for residential real estate loans (partial) also moved lower.

Trade Services dipped 1.1% MoM but Goods prices surged 2.8% MoM (driven by spiking Energy costs)…

This is the biggest jump in PPI Goods on record…

Commodity prices are accelerating…

But, arguably, the Energy component has peaked here…

And memory prices actually dipped according to PPI data…

The CPI-PPI spread is signaling increased pressure on corporate margins…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike expectations ticked higher on the report (but are stable around one fuill hike in 2026 for now).