Mapping SpaceX’s Lockup Expirations: HSBC Calculates When The Shares Could Hit The Market

As of early Monday cash trading in New York, SpaceX shares were hovering near an all-time low of $110.21 after briefly dipping into the $108 handle. The rocket/AI company bonds have also come under pressure, leaving investors searching for signs of where the post-IPO selloff might finally find a proper floor.

SPCX LOD (and all time low) 110.21 https://t.co/RMbpm3ogyF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 27, 2026

Even a bullish note from Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu failed to correct increasing bearish sentiment. Yu’s post-mortem concluded that Starship Flight 13 demonstrated “solid progress” toward full reusability, but the note was not enough to spark any meaningful wave of dip-buying.

One immediate overhang in the stock may be the quickly approaching lockup expirations. Traders appear reluctant to step in front of a potential tsunami of newly eligible shares that could dramatically expand the public float and put further pressure on the struggling stock.

HSBC analysts Nicolas Cote-Colisson and Charlie Rothbarth recently provided clients with a roadmap of SpaceX’s lockup expirations. The first major release could make about 912 million shares eligible for public sale on Aug. 6, just two days after the company’s first quarterly earnings report.

The unlock would expand SpaceX’s free float to 11.8% from 4.9%, compared with roughly 639 million shares currently available for trading, creating a potentially significant supply overhang.

Here’s more color from the analysts on the lockup schedule:

Investors should also consider potential share release post-lockup

SpaceX’s IPO prospectus indicated that 555,555,555 shares would be issued to constitute the free float. We understand that the underwriters have exercised their option to purchase additional shares of Class A common stock in full, so the free float would have extended to 638,888,888 shares.

We identify 4,678m locked up shares and another 8,160m shares subject to an extended lockup. Based on the information provided by the SpaceX prospectus dated 12 June 2026, we calculate that 912m shares could be available for sale in the public market from 6 August 2026, compared with 640m shares constituting the free float at present. The free float would increase from 4.9% at present to 11.8%.

Another release event could occur on the same day depending on SpaceX shares trading above USD175.5 for at least five of 10 consecutive trading days ending on 4 August 2026 (i.e. between 22 July and 4 August 2026). The table below provides further event/date triggers for subsequent share releases.

Those restricted shares are currently owned by funds and individuals that have participated in the private rounds of financing and may be inclined to keep their shares. But we think investors should be aware of this.

One institutional trading desk we spoke with said it plans to wait for the lockup expirations before starting a position in the stock.

Professional subscribers can find more color on SPCX here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.