Iron Ore Below $100 As UBS Warns “Fundamentals Are Deteriorating”

Iron ore futures in Singapore fell to their lowest intraday level in one year as deteriorating fundamentals continued to weigh on the market.

Steel demand in China remains soft amid an ongoing construction slump and weakening mill margins, while supply continues to increase, reinforcing expectations of a growing surplus.

Bloomberg noted earlier that the latest concerns surrounding major physical trader Radiant World added another layer of uncertainty, but the bigger bearish narrative remains centered on lackluster demand failing to absorb rising supply.

The outlet adds more color:

Vitol Group and Cargill Inc. have stopped doing business with Radiant World, a privately held company, amid concerns over fake invoices, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.

In addition, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Jefferies Financial Group Inc.’s Point Bonita fund were reviewing exposures to the company.

Radiant World — which has grown in recent years to become one of the market’s main players — said the developments are “categorically untrue”.

Separately, Myles Allsop, a London-based mining and metals research analyst at UBS, recently pointed out, “Iron ore fundamentals remain cautious; prices are starting to test the low end of the range.”

Allsop questioned whether iron ore will trade above $100/t in 2027. He answered, “Probably not,” and added:

Iron ore fundamentals are deteriorating with supply lifting while demand is soft; this has resulted in inventories lifting materially over the last 12 months.

We note cost support levels have lifted with higher diesel/ freight rates but these are set to moderate over the next 12 months if the ceasefire holds & oil/ gas prices normalise.

We expect iron ore prices to average ~$100/t in 2026 and moderate to ~US$95/t in 2027 with the market in a larger surplus and prices stepping down to trade just above the ~90th percentile of the value-in-use curve or ~$90/t (note).

We expect steel scrap to start to displace iron ore demand from 2027 when China’s ETS gets tighter (although the scale and pace is opaque and dependent on highly fragmented collection and processing, as well as policy support).

Overnight, Iron ore futures extended their selloff, with benchmark Singapore contracts falling as much as 2.3% to $93.65 a ton, the lowest intraday level since July 2025, while the most-active Dalian contract dropped nearly 3%.

The price action suggests bearish sentiment toward the steelmaking raw material, as weakening Chinese demand, softer steel margins, and increasing supply are pressuring the market.