Nadav Eyal: The Warning Netanyahu Got Before The War

Here. Let me explain Trump’s presidency to you in 45 seconds: pic.twitter.com/JJgZEhfL4x

— Forbidden HQ ? (@WearForbidden) August 4, 2026

?TIM DILLON torches JD Vance over “cringe” Rogan appearance where he played powerless

“You have to be one of the stupidest people in the world to fall for this shit… [JD's in an admin] that betrays its voters and does the opposite of everything it said it was gonna do”

“I… pic.twitter.com/iRqBctvWKQ

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This is fascinating.

MAGA was so excited in January about the “Big 26.”

We didn’t know at the time that the big decision that would determine the whole course of the year, the fate of Trump’s second term, the 2026 midterms and likely the future of the American Right for the next decade had already been made in Israel. The Trump administration was informed in February that Israel was going ahead with a regime change war with Iran. Trump’s own top officials thought the Israeli plan was “bullshit” and “ridiculous.” And yet, Trump decided to join the war anyway.

Nadav Eyal:

“It is impossible to think about Israel’s plan to bring down the Islamic Republic without first thinking about its sheer presumption. Grinding a regime down over years — sanctions, influence operations, the slow seeding of fear and confusion — is one thing. Recruiting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president and Holocaust denier, as an asset and installing him in power is another. So is launching a full-scale Kurdish invasion. This is the kind of project superpowers fail at. Israel tried it, and poured an enormous effort into the attempt.

Over the past weeks, The New York Times and Haaretz have published a great deal about that effort. What follows adds to the record on the most ambitious regional objective Israel has ever pursued: regime change in a country of roughly 100 million people, a regional power — attempted in wartime, and in coordination with the only superpower, the United States. …

And yet the cabinet voted for an objective that was, in practice, an attempt at regime change. An objective that large — Megalomanic, some would say — dictates the allocation of resources and carries severe regional consequences. Put another way: the nuclear program and the ballistic missiles mattered, but they were not the holy grail, and they were not the message of the new war that followed. Where Rising Lion, the June 2025 campaign, prioritized the nuclear project — and did in fact halt enrichment — Roaring Lion was meant to be the war that ended all wars. With Iran, at least. …

In December 2025 the mass demonstrations and the uprising erupted across Iran. It is safe to assume the Mossad’s influence directorate did everything it could to help them; that is what it was built for. The regime responded with mass killing of Iranian civilians. If Rising Lion (2025) had ended in deep satisfaction inside the security establishment, Iran’s destabilization in December and January produced something closer to euphoria — close to messianic. President Trump promised to come to the demonstrators’ aid. The Mossad and the IDF received an instruction from the prime minister to prepare for the big war, and to accelerate the plans toward execution. …

On February 11, the briefing for the American president takes place. Mossad chief David Barnea and Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir present the Israeli operational vision. The Israelis do not know what the journalists Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan will later publish: that senior American officials, having heard the Israeli presentations on the war and above all on regime change, were unconvinced. They thought it was “bullshit,” to quote Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Or ridiculous, in the judgment of Barnea’s counterpart, the director of the CIA.

A few days later, Israelis say, the green light comes from the White House to proceed. …”

Scott Greer thinks White Nationalists choose marginalization over political engagement, but look at how the decision to go to war with Iran was made. Vice President JD Vance thought it was a bad idea, but he was marginalized and couldn’t do anything about it. Marco Rubio thought he was getting bullshit from the Israelis. The CIA assessed that Operation Roaring Lion would be a failure.