Oddsmakers Are All-in on the Ravens

DraftKings & The Ravens Win Total

Eight wins.

That’s what the Baltimore Ravens produced in 2025. Eight wins, a 1-5 start that tied the worst in franchise history, a 3-6 record inside M&T Bank Stadium, a 2-6 mark against teams that reached the postseason, and a two-point loss in Pittsburgh in Week 18 that ended it all on the final play. John Harbaugh, after 18 seasons, was dismissed on January 6.

And now DraftKings projects this football team’s win total at 11.5 — the highest number on the entire board, shared only with a Los Angeles Rams squad that traded for Myles Garrett and reached the NFC Championship Game.

The Ravens are the betting favorite to win the AFC North (roughly -115 to -130). They are the betting favorite to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LXI (+470 at DraftKings as of Tuesday). And they’ve been sitting in that 10-1 to 12-1 neighborhood on the Lombardi Trophy since March, a second tier behind the Rams and shoulder-to-shoulder with Buffalo.

So, the question isn’t whether the Ravens can be good. They can be good. The question is whether they can be twelve wins good with a first-time head coach, the youngest play-caller in the National Football League, a brand-new center, a rookie right guard, a wide receiver room built on hope, and a tight end room that has been gutted and reassembled.

Let’s walk through it.

The Coaching Staff: All New, All at Once

Jesse Minter got the job on January 22 — a five-year deal, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter — and he is, by every account, sharp, prepared and well-liked. He cut his NFL teeth in Owings Mills as a defensive assistant from 2017-20 before four years running Jim Harbaugh‘s defenses at Michigan and with the Chargers.

He has also never been a head coach. Anywhere. At any level.

Beneath him sits Declan Doyle, 30 years old, who becomes the youngest offensive play-caller in the league. Doyle spent 2025 as the Bears’ offensive coordinator, but Ben Johnson called the plays in Chicago. Doyle has never called a play in an NFL game. Seven years of NFL coaching experience total. He is, to his credit, a genuine riser — Chicago went from dead last in yards in 2024 to sixth in 2025, and from 28th in scoring to ninth. But he was a co-pilot at best on that flight, not the captain.

Anthony Weaver returns to run the defense, and that’s a very solid hire. He’s been a coordinator in Houston and Miami and he knows this building.

Here’s my concern, and it isn’t about talent evaluation. It’s about seat time. Lamar Jackson is about to learn his fourth offensive system in nine seasons, from a coordinator his own age who has never held the call sheet, under a head coach who has never managed a fourth quarter. The Ravens haven’t had to teach a new head coach how to handle a two-minute drill since George W. Bush was in office.

That stuff doesn’t show up in a win total. It shows up in Week 6 in Cleveland when it’s 20-17 and somebody must decide whether to go for it on 4th-and-2.

The Offensive Line: Better “On Paper”

Eric DeCosta deserves credit here. The 2025 line was a problem — ESPN noted the starting guard tandem of Daniel Faalele and Andrew Vorhees finished 32nd in the NFL in pass block win rate among guards. Dead last. Jackson was sacked 36 times, much of the pressure coming right up the gut.

So DeCosta went to work. John Simpson came home on a three-year, $30 million deal. Penn State’s Vega Ioane was the 14th overall pick and is a plug-and-play starter at right guard. Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten return at tackle, and that’s a legitimately good bookend pair.

But then there’s the middle.

Tyler Linderbaum — a three-time Pro Bowler, 25 years old — took Las Vegas’ three-year, $81 million offer, an average of $27 million per season that obliterated the previous center record. Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reported the Ravens were never close. That’s not a criticism of DeCosta; that’s a market that got away from everybody.

The replacement? Ethan Pocic, signed on July 17 for one year and $3 million with $1.5 million in incentives. Pocic is a 10-year veteran with 97 career starts. He is also coming off a torn Achilles suffered last December, cleared only days before he signed. His competition is Danny Pinter (10 starts in six seasons), Corey Bullock and Jovaughn Gwyn.

So, a rookie at right guard, a returning guard on a new deal at left guard, and a center on a one-year prove-it contract who was rehabbing an Achilles in May. In front of a quarterback whose entire value proposition is what happens when a play breaks down.

Better than last year? No doubt! Solved? TBD.

Wide Receiver: One Star and A Wish List

Zay Flowers is terrific. Back-to-back Pro Bowls, 3,128 receiving yards in three seasons, fifth-year option exercised. He is a legitimate WR1 and it’s safe to expect big things from Zay.

After that?

Rashod Bateman played 13 games in 2025 and caught 19 passes for 224 yards. Nineteen. That’s the WR2, on a contract that runs through 2029.

The Ravens did not sign a veteran receiver this offseason. Not one. (Not yet!) They drafted USC’s Ja’Kobi Lane in the third round and Indiana’s Elijah Sarratt — a St. Frances Academy product, welcome home — in the fourth. Both bring size the room has lacked. Both are also rookies, and rookie receivers are the single least reliable commodity in this sport. The No. 3 job is currently a wide-open audition between two rather inexperienced pass catchers – Devontez Walker and LaJohntay Wester.

I’ve watched this franchise talk itself into a receiver room every August for a decade. Forgive me if I want to see it before I bet on a win total.

Tight End: The Room Emptied Out

Isaiah Likely followed John Harbaugh to New York. Charlie Kolar signed with the Chargers. Baltimore’s tight ends combined for 871 receiving yards in 2025 — the fewest since 2020 — and then the depth walked out the door.

What remains is Mark Andrews, who signed a three-year, $39.3 million extension in December and then finished the season with career lows almost across the board: 48 catches, 422 yards, 8.8 yards per reception, five touchdowns. He turns 31 in September.

Behind him: Durham Smythe, a blocker who caught four passes in Chicago last year, and rookies Matt Hibner and Josh Cuevas.

In an offense that has historically run through 12 personnel, that’s a real problem — unless Andrews rediscovers 2021. And betting on a 31-year-old tight end to reverse a three-year decline is not the sort of thing that gets you to 12-5.

The Defense: The Bill Comes Due

Here’s the part that offers hope.

The 2025 defense was, and I’m being generous, a sieve. They allowed 177 points in the first five games — the most in franchise history over that span. They finished 24th in yards allowed (354.5 per game), 18th in scoring (23.4), and 30th in the league in sacks, with Travis Jones leading the team at five. Five. Nnamdi Madubuike‘s neck injury in Week 2 vaporized the interior rush and the whole thing cascaded from there.

DeCosta responded. After the Maxx Crosby trade collapsed at the physical — the Ravens had already agreed to send two first-round picks to Las Vegas before backing out — Baltimore pivoted to Trey Hendrickson on a four-year, $112 million deal ($120 million with incentives, $60 million fully guaranteed). Missouri’s Zion Young came in the second round. Calais Campbell returned. Jaylinn Hawkins was added at safety.

The caveats are real, though. Hendrickson turns 32 this season, was limited to seven games in 2025, and had core muscle surgery in December. Madubuike hasn’t taken a football practice since Week 2 of last season. Teddye Buchanan is coming off a December ACL tear.

And the secondary — four first-round picks in Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey, Nate Wiggins and Malaki Starks — was not meaningfully reinforced. That group has talent. That group was also part of the worst defensive collapse this franchise has ever seen. Talent wasn’t the problem in 2025. Cohesion was.

The Schedule Is The Whole Argument

If you’re taking the over, this is your ticket.

The Ravens have the ninth-easiest schedule in the NFL by 2025 opponent winning percentage (.479). Their first six opponents — Colts, Saints, Cowboys, Titans, Falcons, Browns — went a combined 37-64-1 last season. They do not face a 2025 playoff team until November. The bye lands in Week 13, and this franchise has reached the postseason in seven of eight seasons with a bye that late.

That is a legitimate on-ramp for a new staff installing two new systems. ESPN’s Mike Clay projects 11.4 wins. The market isn’t crazy. But even Clay seems to be hedging bets against the 11 ½ win line.

But then the tough part of the schedule, on paper, arrives in Weeks 8-12: at Buffalo, home for Jacksonville and the Chargers, then at Carolina and at Houston. Five straight playoff teams. And the season closes with four consecutive division games — the first time in 31 years the Ravens have finished that way.

The Verdict

The Ravens still go as Lamar goes. Jackson is now 29, healthy for the first time in a year. Despite the challenges in 2025, the man was still ninth in QBR (62.7) while playing 13 games on a bad hamstring, a bad back, a bad toe and a bad knee behind the league’s worst pass-blocking guards. Derrick Henry ran for 1,595 yards and 16 touchdowns at age 31 — second in the NFL — and PFF graded him 14th among 55 qualified backs. Hendrickson is the best edge rusher to wear this uniform since Terrell Suggs. The schedule is soft where it needs to be.

That’s a 10-win team’s résumé. Maybe 11 if everything breaks right.

Twelve wins requires all of the following to happen simultaneously: a first-time head coach avoids first-time head coach mistakes, a 30-year-old first-time play-caller unlocks a two-time MVP inside six months, a center on a one-year deal comes back clean from an Achilles, a rookie right guard starts 17 games, a rookie receiver becomes a real weapon, a 31-year-old tight end reverses course, a 32-year-old pass rusher stays upright after core-muscle surgery, and a secondary that dazed and confused throughout 2025 rediscovers its swagger.

Any three of those, sure. All eight?

That’s a lot to ask for.

Vegas is pricing the roster. It isn’t pricing the transition. The number reflects what this team looked like in 2024 and what it could look like in 2027 — not the very real friction of a franchise learning an entirely new language in real time.

GM Eric DeCosta has said in the past that his job is to play both the short and the long game. The long game looks bright, but DraftKings is operating in the present and for me, there’s too much that must go right to justify the betting on a twelve win as it stands today.

Sorry, but pending any significant upgrades, put me down for the under.

What about you?

Betting on Bateman

The post Oddsmakers Are All-in on the Ravens appeared first on Russell Street Report.

Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2026/07/22/lombardis-way/ravens-win-total-in-2026/