Jim Hansen Could Totally Be Right About 2026 Heating
This is the same Jim Hansen who has been wrong on most things climate, including the West Side of NYC being underwater
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026
Jim Hansen and I have spent much of this year making seemingly opposite predictions about where 2026 will end up in the global temperature record books. He has argued since the spring that 2026 will be the warmest year on record; I have made the case that it is more likely than not to end up in second place. And in a recent post he framed our disagreement in memorably equine terms:
Based on this scientific evidence, we expect that when the horse race comes down the stretch, in November and December of this year, we will be riding a thoroughbred, a strong young horse, and Zeke will be atop a fading old nag.
For the record, I am the fading old nag in this metaphor. I have been called worse.
But here is the fun part: when the race comes down the final stretch at the end of 2026, there is a good chance we will both be declared winners. Hansen’s prediction is about NASA’s GISTEMP record specifically. Mine is about the average across the major surface temperature datasets. And when I run my own forecast model separately on each of six datasets, it gives GISTEMP a ~65% chance of a new 2026 record even as the multi-dataset average only has a ~32% chance and is likely to come in second place.
But, here’s the fun part: Hansen started making his prognostication in April 2026. Why do Warmists always wait till things are happening to make their predictions? Or, make them 50-100 years out? If Hansen and Zeke Hausfather wanted to make predictions they should have done it before the end of 2025.
And, really, no matter what, the cult will make sure that 2026 is the Warmest Evah!!!!, forgetting all about being a big El Nino year.
Source: https://www.thepiratescove.us/2026/07/30/jim-hansen-could-totally-be-right-about-2026-heating/
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