Chicago Cubs: Is Kevin Gausman worth bringing back?

Heading into the offseason, the Chicago Cubs face a looming crisis in their starting rotation. Between pending free agents Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, Shota Imanaga, and David Peterson, plus numerous health concerns, including Cade Horton recovering from Tommy John surgery, Ben Brown’s neck problems, Edward Cabrera’s laundry list of issues, and Justin Steele returning after missing nearly two years, it’s all very worrisome.

This team will require multiple starter moves to be competitive. It’s hard to bank on Tarik Skubal coming to Chicago, and even so, that’s one guy. There’s a lot of innings to be eaten. To bring up Gausman again: he might not be high on many fans’ wish lists, but could he be a candidate to return? Even if they also explore bringing back someone like Holmes?

With a staff this thin, all angles should be explored.

Is investing again in Gausman a good idea?

Gausman has had a good career: 3.87 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.2 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 in 2088.2 innings, though a “meh” 2026. Between the Cubs and Jays, he pitched to a 4.51 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.3 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 4.02 xERA, and 3.58 xFIP in 32 starts.

There are two sides to the coin. On one side, the expected stats said he was getting a bit unlucky last year. His groundball rate actually increased from 2025 (36.7%) to 2026 (40.1%), and his whiff, strikeout, chase, and walk rates were still respectable to legit good and comparable to 2025, when he posted a 3.59 ERA and 3.41 FIP in 32 starts. He pitched in nine games as a Cub (4.83 ERA, 4.33 FIP) and was hot and cold, though in five starts he pitched 5.2+ innings, surrendering two runs or fewer.

On the other side, Gausman will be 36 next year. Based on the past several years, it seems prime days of peak dominant 28%+ strikeout rates and sub-3.10 FIP seasons are likely in the past. Also note his 1.32 HR/9 last year being his highest since 2019 and a slight drop in fastball velocity from 2025 (94.5 MPH) to 2026 (93.8 MPH).

Weighing the pros and cons

Do the Cubs want to invest around $20 million AAV (based on his Spotrac market value) in a pitcher who is getting older and coming off a so-so year? Much of how the Cubs approach the offseason depends on their budget…and the state of baseball heading towards a looming lockout. Gausman in a vacuum might not look like a terrible investment, but putting a decent chunk of it into a guy who is not “ace” level at this point could be tougher. Even if $19-$20 million is good value for any durable starter these days.

Ignoring the money for a second and just looking at Gausman, the pitcher. He likely projects as a solid mid-rotation guy and could provide what the Cubs badly need: innings and starts. Ever since the 2020 COVID season, he has made 31+ starts each season. Even if he posted around his expected numbers from last year, roughly a high-3/low-4 ERA and 3.7 FIP in 30 starts, that would help win games.

In the end, Gausman is obviously not the biggest fish. Nor the most desirable. Though if they do not land a big fish, they have to consider mid-tier options, and Gausman is one of those. Probably one of the better ones in that tier.

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