Can we trust Polling Results? I still don’t know, but I finally was called for a Survey this Election cycle!
[BREAKING NEWS: As I type this Article announced: SCOTUS JUSTICE RUTH BADER GINSBURG has Died at age 87 (BREAKING NEWS: #SCOTUS Justice #RuthBaderGinsberg has Died at age 87. | The Law | Before It's News /the-law/2020/09/breaking-news-scotus-justice-ruth-bader-ginsberg-has-died-at-age-87-2458419.html ). This is likely to COMPLETELY SHIFT SOME VOTES, including potentially several within this Poll/Survey I am about to address. The next SCOTUS nominee will now JUMP WAY UP THE LIST OF CONCERNS of many, as it will be a determing factor of the Court makeup -- whether it will remain having 4 heavily Liberal Activist leaning members, or swing more toward STRICT CONSTITUTIONALISM (with Roberts being far more Moderate these Days)! I will put some SCOTUS and/or RGB related cross-reference links at the bottom of this Article +++]
Before I actually get to my experience being Polled this week, first it is important to have a GENERAL DISCUSSION ABOUT POLLS…. This Article is NOT for the faint of heart, those with a TWITTER ATTENTION SPAN and/or MENTALITY… It will be LONG AND IN-DEPTH (and has a lot of cross-reference links for even futher and more in-depth info per sub-topic)!!!! Or if you’re looking to cut to the chase CTL-F (find) search ahead to “AS FOR THE ACTUAL POLL” section (quick links to FREEP stories: https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/18/joe-biden-donald-trump-michigan-poll/3478071001/ — https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/18/election-2020-michigan-poll-joe-biden-donald-trump/3481756001/)
[update/notice: #B4IN ARCHIVES articles after 1 year time, so if you are viewing after that time all related images have been stripped and therefore potentially some much needed context and/or related thoughts that were conveyed by the image(s)]
POLLING – SCIENCE, ART, COMBINATION:
Polling, they tell us: IS A SCIENCE! Well, I’ve STUDIED the Science as best I could and while they’ve certainly been doing Survey’s/Polls for a long time now to try and PERFECT THE SCIENCE, there is still far more “ART,” or nuance, and down-right MANIPULATION that goes on than they’d like to admit. And we all can easily/certainly point to the Presidential Election of 2016 as PROOF of that – as virtually every Poll was WRONG regarding that outcome!
Frankly, following the 2016 debacle, sure they’d call it just an anomomoly, and refuse to self-reflect and perhaps ADJUST in order to ensure they do not get things as WRONG as they did. For example, I find it hard to TRUST any Polling less than 2.5k participants, but the Polling outlets still insist that Polling just 1,000 people is “REPRESENTATIVE” in the RANDOM BASE OF CALLS, and many Polls still have even fewer than that. It is just COMMON SENSE that a larger sample pool would yield a far better REPRESENATION and with OPEN DEFIENCE of some, perhaps MANY (I know “many”) who indeed REFUSE TO TAKE PART IN POLLS IF CONTACTED!
Truth is, there is often, from what I’ve Researched TWO SEASONS of/for Polling. Many of the Polling firms often do engage in MANIPULATION or an ATTEMPT TO SHAPE OPINION RATHER THAN REPORT ON OPINION in early Polling efforts by “WEIGHTING” (more on that later) a Poll to lean more Democrat than potentially should based upon “PREDICTIVE MODEL” (and, again, more on that later) would/should call for based upon HISTORICAL DATA (you guessed it, more on that later). Then, in bid to SAVE THEIR REPUTATIONS they do engage in far more SERIOUS attempts to REPORT RATHER THAN INFLUENCE! HOW?!?!? Simple….
Perhaps far more important than SAMPLE SIZE (because, despite “many” refusing to take part in Polls, the Polling organizations are indeed GOING TO MAKE THEIR QUOTAS of “identified” Registered “Democrats” and “Republicans” (even if they have to take longer and make many more Calls until they reach those numbers that identify as such who will willingly participate (avoiding the whole WILL LIE TO POLLSTERS phenom that also exists, which is why I spoke above about NOT TRUSTING LOWER SAMPLE SIZE POLLS and not understanding the RESISTENCE of Polling firms to not go to larger size models just to (again) PROTECT THEIR OWN REPUTATIONS) and try and “adjust for” or “counter” any folks who are purposefully “messing with their numbers” by not being honest with Pollsters)) and those who IMO refuse to TAKE A SIDE in what has become a Fight for the SOUL OF AMERICA! Side with Democrats (and their ever lurching more and more Socialist and outright ANIT-AMERICANISM) or those wanting to preserve/CONSERVE (CONSERVATIVES) the “REPUBLIC” (REPUBLICANS) and still choose to call themselves Independents! My apologies for that very long, dare say “RUN ON” sentence and parentheticals, trying to tie what was all still on basic thought together! Anyway, “more important than SAMPLE SIZE” is what is called “WEIGHTING” (the “PREDICTIVE MODEL” of how many GOP, how many Democrats, and how many Independents, to SURVEY as makeup) of a Poll. This is where the “ART” and/or attempts to MANIPULATE come in….
BEFORE GOING FURTHER… WHAT IS A PUSH POLL:
If you’ve been involved in Politics at all more than just showing up to Vote or the last 30days or so up to an Election, you should have heard the term: “PUSH POLL!” A “PUSH POLL” is what as known as the Polls I’ve discussed TRYING TO SHAPE OPINION as opposed to REAL POLL JUST TRYING TO GARNER HONEST REACTION TO REPORT A GIVEN ELECTION TRUE/HONEST/REALISTIC PROBABLE/LIKELY OUTCOME! These are done, I contend, by many Polling firms in order to HELP SHAPE AN UPCOMING ELECTION based upon their own internal (staff’s) PERSONAL BIAS (Democrat or Republican, leanings) AND OFTEN TOO by Campaigns themselves! This can be done by “WEIGHTING” (more on that coming) but a lot of times by SKEWING THE RESULTS BY SKEWING THE QUESITONS ASKED! Honest Polling calls for Question to be couched in as NEUTRAL TERMS/LANGUAGE AS POSSIBLE… PUSH POLLING often uses language to try and LEAN THE RESPONDER into a PREFERRED RESPONSE rather than their potentially honest opinion had NEUTRAL TERMINOLOGY BEEN USED TO ASK A GIVEN QUESTION! In other words, they may PREFACE A QUESTION with a brief monolougue or statement meant to skew the discussion toward either a LIBERAL (to benefit a Democrat) or a CONSERVATIVE (to benefit a Republican / GOP) outcome. Using a “SOME SAY” argument! A “SOME SAY” PREFACE should always contain a SOME SAY from the Liberal side and a SOME SAY (counter) from the Conservative side – TO BALANCE THE PREFACE and then ask for the person being SURVEYed honest response of leaning one way, the other, OR ARE THEY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, or COMPLETELY UNDECIDED reagarding any GIVEN ISSUE or LIST(S) OF CANDIDATES! Do they FAVOR (ABSOLUTELY FAVOR OR JUST LEAN) one Candidate, or the other, or UNDECIDED?!?!?
Not to single anyone out, but by way of recent example: I had a DOOR-TO-DOOR SURVEY just a few weeks back. It just so happened that the VOLUNTEER was/is a Lifelong Friend of mine. The Issue being ABORTION. The Survey (they won’t admit it’s a PUSH POLL, but it is) conducted by SUSAN B ANTHONY LIST PAC (see: https://www.sba-list.org/)! They asked “DID YOU KNOW” this or that about particular Legislation and who is driving them Questions with the Goal to PREFACE the Final Questions of WHO DO YOU SUPPORT (this was in/for Michigan): Trump or Biden, John James or Gary Peters (USSenate Race), etc… They hope, on behalf of their (and, for full disclosure, MY POSITION) of being PRO-LIFE and to PROMOTE PRO-LIFE CANDIDATES (Trump, James, locally Jeff Jones vs Debbie Dingell MICD12, Paul Junge over Elissa Slotkin in MICD08, and Eric Esshaki in MICD11 over Haley Stevens (both Stevens and Slotkin turned traditional GOP seats Blue in MidTerms2018 (as was more of a #PINKWAVE (Females swept seats (though those amounted to Soltkin,Stevens, Wins, as well as Dems taking MIGov, MISOS, MIAG (more on that in: /tea-party/2020/04/gary-wellings-thedrift-michigan-podcast-wuhanvirus-migov-whitmer-and-more-mi-politics-03312020-2634198.html))) rather than a #BLUEWAVE (Democrats swept seats (more in-depth regarding MidTerms2018 later)) and obviously are key targeted seats to turn back RED by GOP in/for 2020)! Anyway, point partially being, YOU MAY NOT NECESSARILY GRASP whether a Poll is a PUSH POLL or regular Poll, and (as I said) I was visited by someone I know and was VERY HAPPY to even take part in what I new going in was a clear PUSH POLL. Had some great side conversation too!
“WEIGHTING”, “PREDICTIVE MODEL”, “HISTORIC PRECEDENCE”:
Any and every Poll’s predictive acumen, is only as good as the “PREDICTIVE MODEL” (the composition of “PREDICTED TURNOUT”) of any give Election cycle. Whether it be a Presidential cycle or a MidTerm Election, HISTORY (TRENDS) provides a “REASONABLE” set of recent and/or long-term (historic) criteria to base an upcoming Election upon. This, of course, occasionally gets turned on its Head by one side or another turning out about Historic levels (whether it be Democrats being more motivated than usual, or GOP base more motivated than normal, as just because someone is “registered” or “identifies” (as not all States track Party Affiliation, some only ask you to DECLARE DURING A PRIMARY (but not be pre-registered))) does NOT mean they automatically Vote! That’s where the ART and the SCIENCE collide! Accurately PREDICTING TURNOUT! The HISTORY of TURNOUT each Election (providing “somewhat” reliable TREND DATA), going back and actually identifying how many of the “D” and “R” Party vs Registered actually showed up to Vote, and the remainder of “Independents” (yes, NOT ALL, the “THIRD PARTY” (yes, they hate that label) Voters get lumped in with the INDEPENDENTS!
Again, HISTORY often tells the TURNOUT (which any given POLL’S PREDICTIVE MODEL IS NORMALLY BUILT UPON) Tale! MidTerms often motivate the Party NOT HOLDING THE WHITE-HOUSE, and there can often (actually USUALLY) be a TRANSFER (change of Control/Power, working Majority (and who then has Chair of Committees)) in the USHouse and USSenate! The average SHIFT for the USHouse is often betweeen 50-60 seats from Red to Blue, or Blue to Red, again depending upon who is POTUS! Many will recall what some call THE REPBULCIAN REVOLUTION or some call THE GINGRICH REVOLUTION (due to his developing the CONTRACT WITH AMERICA, that helped sweep control of the USHouse to GOP during Clinton MidTerm)! However, it has to be noted, the normal/average (usual in conjunction with Historic trends) DOES NOT AUTOMATICALLY EQUATE to change of/in Control of either Body of Congress – though indeed often does. And, it has to be noted, the USSenate is a completely different “animal” (as the saying goes) than the House! All 435 USHouse seats are up for Election (ReElection, of course, in case of Incumbents) every two years (and, yes, sometimes due to a Death or Resignation (or even more rare EXPLUSION) sometimes a Special Election in off-times but they are still up again in the next regularly scheduled Term expiration)! A Senate seat, being a 6 year Term, the Election cycles ROTATE – every two years only one-third of the 100 Senators are up for Election/ReElection at any given time (and if Death/Resignation/Expulsion, under 10th Amendment and 17th Amendment, it goes to STATE LAW to determine replacement – Governor appointment or Special Election)! And, any given USSenate Election cycle is UNIQUE IN AND OF ITSELF as the “compostion” of the INCUMBENCY will always be different (as in 2020, the GOP has far more Incumbents seats to Defend thereby giving Democrats greater chance at SHIFT and potential TRANSFER of that body (though given REDSTATE / BLUESTATE demographics, many lay odds that only 3 GOP seats have moved to toss-up (at-risk) while 2 Democrat seats at risk, providing potential for a WASH come Election night)). Presidential years, have their own HISTORICAL TRENDS too, as a Sitting President OFTEN IS ASSURED REELECTION (yes, just going back my Lifetime, Carter, HWBush, became exceptions) though Vice-Presidents vying to continue past their 8 years as VP and becoming POTUS themselves is really an open question as while HWBush faired well, Gore did not, Cheney didn’t run, and Biden didn’t run consecutively after ObamaBiden Admin!
BRIEF ASIDE ABOUT MIDTERMS2018:
A brief aside regarding MidTerms2018, WHICH IS RELATED AND DOES EFFECT POLLING (HOW TO ADJUST FOR ABNORMAL YEAR OUTCOME(S)… snippet from Article (an OPINION PIECE, my own OPINION PIECE/ARTICLE, so you’ll see some Personal OPINION in this paragraph, where-as the rest of this current Article is meant to be OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF/ON POLLING ISSUES) – Brandon Straka (WalkAway) & Candace Owens (BLEXIT), 2020 and Beyond! Can They Do What the Tea Party Did Not (Long Term Shifts)? at: /u-s-politics/2020/08/brandonstraka-walkaway-candiceowens-blexit-2020-and-beyond-can-they-do-what-the-teaparty-did-not-long-term-shifts-2580289.html …..
“MidTerms2018, for those that actual STUDY POLITICS, is a bit of an OPEN QUESTION (a bit inconclusive) as far as the Results. Yes, the USHouse both SHIFTed and TRANSFERED POWER from GOP to Democrat — BUT, MidTerms OFTEN see a Swing of 50-60ish seats in the USHouse and 2018 was 35ish. Well below average/norms!! So, while it still does show the usual SHIFT [update: AND EVEN TRANSFER] but a lessor degree and can give us REAL HOPE that many professing their LOVE OF TRUMP have actually SEEN THE LIGHT and #WalkAway from Democrats and not just shift back immediately after (like after Reagan [note/update: for greater context, see that/the full Article: /u-s-politics/2020/08/brandonstraka-walkaway-candiceowens-blexit-2020-and-beyond-can-they-do-what-the-teaparty-did-not-long-term-shifts-2580289.html]) Trump is gone. REAL HOPE for 2020 (DOWN-BALLOT where it will really matter if TRUMP/WE are to get anything done the next 4 years) AND IN 2022 if people will GET OFF THEIR ASSES in that next off-year/midterm to make sure TRUMP/WE continue to control USHouse (if indeed #GOPTakeBackTheHouse and Keep USSenate in 2020) and our need to build on USSenate majority in both 2020 and 2022 [hopefully go +1 2020, and +3 2022].” [end Article quote, no need for FAIR USE DISCLAIMER, it's my own Article LOL] The Bottom-line point here being: #Midterms2018 were BELOW AVERAGE midterms shift in USHouse seats, BlueWave SPIN by #eneMEDIA was hype for clueless who dont grasp History / Politics and why Pelosi is likely to lose the House Speakership in 2020 and Democrats lose Committee Chairs! As MidTerms2018 was more of a #PINKWAVE (Females swept seats across USA than actual #BLUEWAVE (though that did mean a shift to Blue several seats that likely otherwise would not have – more on that in: /tea-party/2020/04/gary-wellings-thedrift-michigan-podcast-wuhanvirus-migov-whitmer-and-more-mi-politics-03312020-2634198.html). And, further, regarding #BLEXIT see UNCLE TOM MOVIE at: https://salemnow.com/uncle-tom/ .
NATIONAL POLLS VS STATE-BY-STATE POLLS:
There is a BIG DIFFERENCE… We are a REPUBLIC* and the POTUS is Elected based upon the ELECTORAL COLLEGE (EC)(part of the USConstitutions CHECKS AND BALANCES*/** and MINORITY PROTECTIONS* (no, not MINORITY in the Race/Gender/etc definition, but instead Rural (lower Population areas) vs Urban (traditionally higher Populated areas) and NOT POPULAR VOTE (NPV). I am NOT going to go into the HISTORY of POPULAR-VOTE/ELECTORAL-COLLEGE but will instead refer you to a couple of (short/simple) 5 minute (overview) Videos for additional Research/Education on that (EC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6s7jB6-GoU and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFGhX0hLy6E — ECvNPV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXnjGD7j2B0)!
* Which is also a major part why the Congress is divided into 435 Congressional Districts!
Known as THE PEOPLES HOUSE and thereby Elected by DIRECT VOTE OF PEOPLE within each District!
(more on that see: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=why+do+we+have+435+members+of+the+house&atb=v205-1&ia=web)
** And why the USSenate was set up as 2 Senators PER STATE (meant to be appointed BY THE STATE, NOT by STATE POPULAR VOTE based upon each States’ (under 10th Amendment) Constitutional provisions — until the passage of the 17th Amendment (see/listen: AUDIO: Discussion of Constitution, #2A, #17A (Elections & need to Repeal 17th), ElectoralCollege, & Federal Election Law: https://www.dropbox.com/s/oehb4737spuieen/WAAM-MomentOfClarity-2A-17A-ElectoralCollege-FedElectionLaws-031718.mp3?dl=0 — more: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=17th+amendment&atb=v205-1&ia=web). The Senators, as part of Checks and Balances, were meant to be REPRESENTATIVES OF THE STATES INTERESTS (Protective of #10A) and therefore sent BY THE STATE NOT DIRECT VOTE OF PEOPLE OF A STATE (until #17A, which many feel, including me, SHOULD BE REPEALED)!
Oh, before I may forget…. Additionally, related to WEIGHTING, many Polls FAIL TO TAKE ACCOUNT of NEW VOTER REGISTRATIONS (in States that Record “Party affiliation” at Registration) that is FACTOR to/by serious Political Analysts as to ENTHUSIASM GAP calculations and therefore should result in adjusting of TURNOUT MODEL (WEIGHTING PROJECTIONS that then greatest factor that comprise, if being honest, the POLL RESULTS) as NEWLY REGISTERED VOTERS have a solid track-record of actually showing up to VOTE (should be considered in LIKELY VOTERS Polling (but LIKELY VOTERS traditionally only calculated as someone who has Voted in the last 3 elections))!
OK, finally, said all that re: EC vs NPV to say this: NATIONAL POLLS DON’T MATTER because we use the EC vs NPV. What matters are STATE POLLS (polls conducted solely within any given State) and even then every Polling firm (and you can easily find them via DUCKDUCKGO search) will be different (go back to WEIGHTING and SAMPLE SIZE) and why you often hear, and is best to deal in, REAL CLEAR POLITICS (RCP) “AVERAGES OF POLLS” RESULTS (SPECULATIONS, and, first time I used that word, but that is still what/all they are) and RCP main website can be found at: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ . Even then/there, what matters most BATTLEGROUND STATES (which they have a whole pull-down sub-menu dedicated to (for good reason))! For some real good analysis of the DATA/RAWNUMBERS, broken down by Election type and/or location, Larry Sabato’s CRYSTAL BALL reports are a reliable source: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ .
NOT ALL STATES ARE CREATED EQUAL:
What do I mean? Well, simple… Currently you can take 2 very obvious States: CA and NY. They are DEEP BLUE and are likely to remain DEEP BLUE for the forseeable future (though, in my Lifetime, CA was a reliably RED STATE for POTUS Elections, but not so the last 4 decades at least)! Sorry, for all the #MAKETEXASBLUE hashtags, TX is a REDSTATE and likely to remain RED for the forseeable future! That States that matter are what are referred to as PURPLE STATES***! The BATTLE-GROUND STATES***! Those are the States that SWING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (and, again, CRYSTAL BALL does a tremendous job of keeping an eye on how those States are likley to (as they shift back and forth given Polling Data) effect any Election (https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/).
These States have remained about the same for the last several Decades (some start to trend more one way than the other, but then can lurch back therefore remain in the list)! Like Michigan, my State, on the State Level itself tends to be REDISH-PURPLE (Swings back and forth which Party controls Governorship, but more often than not the SOS and/or AG offices as well as the MI-House and MI-Senate held by GOP) but had not gone for the Republican POTUS nominee since 1988 (HWBush) until 2016 (Trump, but by only 10kish Votes)! More on the KEY TO WINNING STATEWIDE RACES IN MICH: /u-s-politics/2019/05/the-key-to-winning-state-wide-elections-in-michigan-facts-data-gop-ignores-at-its-own-peril-2576573.html .
Some see “President Donald Trump’s and Joe Biden’s campaigns are surveying a relatively stable political battlefield that will be concentrated largely in just about a half dozen states: the former “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the traditional swing states of Florida and North Carolina, and the emerging battleground of Arizona” (“FAIR USE” quote under Copyright Law – for more see: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/the-6-states-at-the-center-of-the-battleground-map-six-months-from-election-day/ar-BB13CjYB). While Politico adds both Georgia and Minnesota (and I agree, which will be a SHOCK to those who know me and know I don’t agree with POLITICO a whole lot****) – see: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/08/swing-states-2020-presidential-election-409000 . However, OHIO is usually deemed a BATTLEGROUND STATE and this is one area I will interject my Opinion and say OHIO MUST BE CLOSELY WATCHED (esp with former Gov Kasich part of the “suspect by many” “Lincoln Project” and many calling “RINOsForBiden” crew) and more-so of importance OHIO has picked/chosen/voted-for who became POTUS predictably more than any other State….
“We know this because Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a weekly politics newsletter published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, looked at presidential elections dating back to 1896 and found that no state had a higher percentage of picking the winner – 28 of 30, for 93 percent.” (“FAIR USE” quote under Copyright Law, from Article: https://www.wvxu.org/post/ohio-when-it-comes-choosing-presidents-youre-it-no-doubt-about-it#stream/0)(for more, see: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=how+long+has+ohio+correctly+picked+the+president+of+the+united+states&atb=v205-1&ia=web)
*** for more information see: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=which+states+are+considered+battleground+states+in+presidential+elections&atb=v205-1&ia=web
**** And I have a PERSONAL BEEF with POLITICO (see: #POLITICO targeted me (@JLenardDetroit & other #Conservatives) on #Twitter… The #RussianBots / #RussianHoax #FalseNarratives origins 2016 – at: /u-s-politics/2020/04/politico-targeted-me-jlenarddetroit-other-conservatives-on-twitter-the-russianbots-russianhoax-falsenarratives-origins-2016-2579963.html)
Polls may not, again, like with 2016, be TELLING THE TALE! And, may not for some time to come if the Polling agencies (IMO) DO NOT MAKE ADJUSTMENTS! There is NEVER ANY SUCH THING AS SETTLED SCIENCE (Science always adjusts and changes GIVEN NEW THEORIES AND DATA BY WHICH TO TEST CURRENT “ACCEPTED NORMS” VS “AS WE GROW, WE SHOULD LEARN (and, that goes for POLTICAL SCIENCE accepted norms, as much as the GlobalWarming/ClimateChange FARCE (more on that: /environment/2019/06/the-death-of-globalwarming-c-2000-republished-with-permission-and-still-2019-update-included-here-in-the-left-real-sciencedeniers-refuse-to-learn-anything-2596804.html))! Clearly, at best, Polls need to ADJUST THEIR PLUS/MINUS MARGIN OF ERROR (MOE) RANGES in order to provide far more wiggle room, for the MANY times they are proven wrong (and can potentially SAVE FACE) if their FAILURES fall within broader MOE! And, as I alluded to above, RAISE THEIR SAMPLE RATES to provide far more flexibility in potential PEOPLE LYING TO POLLSTERS (seemingly increasing recent phenom)! And, again, TO BE FAIR, it is IMPOSSIBLE for them to ever know if an UNEXPECTED WAVE ELECTION (such as if the so-called SILENT MAJORITY) with massive unpredictable Folks TURN-OUT!
IN ADDITON: Just as they didn’t see or Factor the beginnings/rumblings of what later officially became the TEAParty movement(s), movements cuz they were not centrally run/funded though there were a couple whose size/scope were “NATIONAL” most were LOCAL CREATED/OPERATED and they missed the REPUBLICAN/GINGRICH REVOLUTION OF 1996. And, even before that, with PEROT who actually (though Kramer of CNBC is credited with the TEAParty Revolution creation with his CNBC rant) the TEAParty by another name was Founded in 1986 with PEROT’s “UNITED WE STAND AMERICA” organization (which was SEPARATE from his Presidential Run, but later morphed via State by State grassroots efforts to become THE REFORM PARTY) and I was indeed happy to be part of a Local UWSA Chapter, wrote Conservative pieces (on out of control Spending, Deficits, Debt (which seems like small change vs today’s levels), out of control Courts even back then, etc) for its Newsletter, but NO – I did NOT become part of PEROTs Presidential Run crew and did NOT Vote for him! Is there a TEAParty resurgence (see related – The #Democrats lurch even further into #Socialism, we must have #TEAParty resurgence to save #USA! at: /tea-party/2019/04/the-democrats-lurch-even-further-into-socialism-we-must-have-teaparty-resurgence-to-save-usa-2623041.html)??? I can see it somewhat locally in a couple TEAParty groups again having Local meetings, while a few others went by the way-side (including, cuz Leadership moved to other areas of Michigan the afore mentioned RATTLE WITH US (SEMi) TEAParty (see related: /contributor/pages/68/448/stories.html)! More-so, it will be NEAR IMPOSSIBLE for Polling agencies to now factor in the #WALKAWAY (Brandon Straka’s) and #BLEXIT (Candace Owens’) National movements (see related: /u-s-politics/2020/08/brandonstraka-walkaway-candiceowens-blexit-2020-and-beyond-can-they-do-what-the-teaparty-did-not-long-term-shifts-2580289.html)!
An update, on Wed 9/23 I discovered this from Steve Deace about Polling, after hearing him on with Glenn Beck (wanted to find that segment, had great break-downs) but could only find this instead. Worth a view:
AS FOR THE ACTUAL POLL I TOOK:
NOW LEAVING DISCUSSION OF POLLS IN GENERAL AND ANALYSIS AND GETTING INTO MY OWN OPINION AS EXPRESSED TO THE POLLSTER AND TO REPORTER OF “THE-FREEP” (“FREE PRESS”) DETROIT AREA NEWSAPER WHO GRACOUSLY CALLED ME FOR A FOLLOW-UP INTERVIEW….
Most people I know if, those rare occasions, that they get a call from a Polling firm just hang up. NOT ME! I am VERY HAPPY to be lucky enough to be SAMPLED/SURVEYED! Early in the week I received such a call (only the second time this Election cycle receiving one) and was indeed, again, VERY HAPPY, to spend the time responding to their Questions! This was, legit, NOT A PUSH POLL, like I previously touched on that I took part in.
At the end of the Survey they asked if I’d be willing to speak with a REPORTER (sadly, nearly no such thing as real Journalists these days (related: Back in the day, there used to be integrity in journalism
see: https://youtu.be/J_Z7qBx2OcM (but so little of it these days, mostly LeftWing Partisan hacks that masquerade as “REPORTERS” (you send endless parade of former Democrat Adminstration position holders doing so (no, I’m not talking about those as “Political Pundint” (aka: Talking Head) but actually hired as ON AIR REPORTERS (aka: Stephanopoulos types) peddling THEIR PREFERRED SPIN/FALSENARRATIVES))) as one (hopefully REAL JOURNALIST) was likely to follow up with one or a few RESPONDENTS of the Poll/Survey for some more in-depth thoughts on the Survey topics/issues! Not only did I receive a follow-up call, I RECEIVED TWO CALLS (both from “THE FREEP” Detroit Free Press newspaper)! One dealing in one set of topics, and the other wanting to specifially talk about DETROIT PROTESTS (and Thankfully, LACK OF RIOTING/LOOTING/BURNING (which I will go into more further down thread))!
[Image above: Picture of Detroit Free Press newspaper 9/18 front-page (image archive link: https://twitter.com/JLenardDetroit/status/1307079883235962880?s=20)]
I was indeed QUOTED in one of the Stories I was Interviewed for, the one listed there in the Front Page Photo that reported [Headline:] “Joe Biden still has big lead on Donald Trump in Michigan — but it’s shrinking, poll shows” [Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press (online: https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/18/joe-biden-donald-trump-michigan-poll/3478071001/ Published 6:00am ET Sep 18, 2020 | updated 7:42am ET Sep 18.2020) as of writing/posting of this #B4IN Article].
If you are at all like me, you will want to Read (this Article is NOT behind a Subscriber Firewall, available to/for all) to see the wonderfully great details of the TREND in Michigan (trending Trumps’ way since June) as well as important to note and understand demographic breakdown. The Story also contains INTERACTIVE GRAPHS for you/us to have really great visual on the shifting tide from Biden toward Trump in Michigan.
[start FAIR USE, (c) 9/18/2020 Detroit Free Press, please see full Story at: https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/18/joe-biden-donald-trump-michigan-poll/3478071001/]
Biden led Trump 48%-40% in the poll, which was conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing for the Free Press and other media partners and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Trump’s well-known penchant to attack and insult his enemies on Twitter and elsewhere may put off some voters, but others, like Joe Lenard, 58, of Wyandotte, are willing to look past them. Lenard said he’s voting for Trump — after sitting out the presidential election four years ago — believing the president has shown himself to be committed to conservative values of reducing taxes and regulations and taking a stance against abortion. “We pretty much had the roaring ’20s ahead of COVID,” he said.
[note: this is a minor mischaracterization of what I said. Sometimes I ABSOLUTELY LOVE what Trump tweets, other times I do agree there was JUST NO NEED TO GO THERE and/or WENT OVER-BOARD / TOO FAR! BUT OVERALL I am GLAD we have someone willing to FIGHT BACK (and at times understands the need to FIGHT FIRE WITH FIRE!]
“I’m not a Trump cult person,” Lenard added. “I believe in principles, not personalities … (But) He’s proven me wrong. He’s been much more of a conservative and pro-Christian leader than I ever thought he would be. He’s earned my vote for 2020.”
[note: EITHER EXTREME is NON-PRINCIPLED! There are some that are clearly just TRUMP CULTISTS, I will never join them, for me it's ALWAYS #PRINCIPLESNOTPERSONALITIES, but NOR will you ever find me among the ranks of the delusional, emotionally hysterical, #TRUMPDERANGEMENT folks/crowd! (more on that in my Article: /republican/2018/10/im-conservative-1stforemost-republican-2nd-stand-by-any-potus-when-deserving-and-criticze-when-i-feel-necessary-2444930.html) I am with Trump about 90% of the times, there are times I oppose ON PRINCIPLE/POLICY and willing to be Vocal about it, that does not mean I'm a HATER - it's always about PRINCIPLES! And as for having earned my Vote, see related article: /religion/2020/01/oped-countering-the-christianitytoday-opinion-piece-farce-2550864.html]
In the 2016 election, more than 75,000 Michiganders, like Lenard, cast ballots but didn’t vote for president — leaving a large bloc potentially up for grabs to both candidates this year.
[end FAIR USE, (c) 9/18/2020 Detroit Free Press, please see full Story at: https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/18/joe-biden-donald-trump-michigan-poll/3478071001/]
The Poll was of Live callers Sept. 10-15, but of only 600 sampled (identidied as likely active voters)! While it is very important to Note and encouraging that the Poll was LIKELY VOTERS vs far less indicative REGISTERED VOTERS, as I had discussed above in the general/generic “Polls and Polling” portion to start off this Article, I wish it were at least over 1k (far better, and more usual sample size) and REALLY would prefer (as discussed above, since TIMES HAVE CHANGED AND POLLING REALLY SHOULD ADJUST) a 3k sample size! They claim a MOE (Margin-of-Error) of +/- 4% (but, again, I don’t trust that to be a true, realiable, potentially THROWN OFF from norms by spat of those who now openly admit “WILL LIE TO POLLSTERS” (impossible to know size) movement)!
Likewise, the Poll claims WEIGHTING of ‘Lean-Democrat Independents’ and ‘absolute Democrat’ of 43% sampled, 39% ‘GOP’ or ‘Lean-Republican Independents” surveyed, and only 11% ‘declared non-lean either way Independents’ sampled. This seems to imply they are WEIGHTING based on a PREDICTIVE TURN-OUT MODEL much closer to MidTerms2018 (as discussed above, saw #PINKWAVE (that swept in Democrats in MI)) than Election2016 (which saw MIGOP do well, but John James losing to Debbie Stabenow in USSenate Race and then Candidate Trump taking MI by only 10k Votes (which IMO a much larger concerted effort will need be made to KEEP MICHIGAN RED (in so far as POTUS Elections go again)))! Republicans Lost MICD08 and MICD11 in 2018, and reclaiming those Seats (AND MORE, to overcome the Ballot handling/counting incompetence both the Jill Stein recount of 2016 and August 2020 Primary showed in Detroit (above/beyond even outright potential #VoterFraud (related: /politics/2018/11/election-voterfraud-will-become-more-and-more-rampant-and-blatant-were-already-seeing-it-in-florida-and-michigan-3036724.html and /u-s-politics/2020/07/never-ending-efforts-of-democrats-to-controlmanipulate-elections-via-voterfraud-2580233.html (neither Article even touching upon the expected Fraud #MailInBallot and potential #BallotHarvesting, which is considered ILLEGAL in Mich))) that Elissa Slotkin and Haley Stevens (again, part of a #PinkWave) hold as one-term Freshemen Congresspersons (both currently running far more TV Ads in Detroit area TV market vs their GOP Challengers (as of today 9/18), will be Key (as well as other factors (see: /u-s-politics/2019/05/the-key-to-winning-state-wide-elections-in-michigan-facts-data-gop-ignores-at-its-own-peril-2576573.html)) to Winning StateWide in Michigan!
The Story also delves into questions of the so-called ENTHUSIASM GAP, giving the incumbent President Trump just a small margin in supposed enthusiam to turn-out for their Candidate on November 3rd. Also, important to note, is the breakdown of “ISSUE MOST IMPORTANT TO ME” rank ‘re-opening Economy and Schools’ 25% which would/should likely favor Trump, BUT it is only 3% above the next highest category of “reducing cases/deaths of/from/by Wuhan Virus (of course, they use “coronavirus” term) which suggest support for strict Lockdown and/or what many (including me) consider UNCONSTITUTIONAL EXECUTIVE ORDERS Mask Mandates (as well the continued Lockdown a Violation of 1976 Emergency Powers Act (most read to have REPEALED the 1945 Act Whitmer is using/abusing to continue and the subject of the UNLOCK MICHIGAN Petition drive to definatively repeal)). Also, Governor Whitmer is declared (but, again, I question WEIGHTING and SAMPLE SIZE) 56% Approval Rating which should bode well for Biden.
There was/is a Secondary, or compaion Story, by the same Journalist in the “Elections” section of the newspaper. However, you have to have a physical copy of the Friday Sep 18 Edition of the Free Press to read, or have a Subscription (as it is behind the paid/Subscribers barrier):
“Latest Michigan poll numbers indicate a worrisome trend for Joe Biden”
Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press (Published 6:00am ET Sep 18, 2020)
avaiable to Subscribers at: https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/18/election-2020-michigan-poll-joe-biden-donald-trump/3481756001/
That Story provides even further breakdown of the Data. Key highlights:
Black Voters – 21% UNDECIDED (with Trump only having 3% declared for him, will #BLEXIT kick in?)!
Independent Voters – split along GENDER lines (in line with many months trend of Trump losing ground in the key Women’s demographic (and most notably the so-called “SOCCER MOMS:”))!
Reagan/Trump Democrats (Oakland, Macomb, Wayne) has Trump down to Biden by 27% (something Trump HAS TO SHRINK in order to Win Michigan (again, as those encompass MICD08 and MICD11 key seats)!
OutState (non TriCounty Metro Detroit) Trump lead is only 1% (surprisingly, IMO, LOW) with 6% declaring for a THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE (though the piece does not provide breakdown on which ones by name or Party) and 5% UNDECIDED!
For Trump to Win Michigan, he likely needs EVERY SINGLE ONE of those UNDECIDEDS and even to somehow reattract the SOCCER-MOMS (aka: SECURITY MOMS) that were staunchly GOP over RuleOfLaw, Safety, Security, issues in the past (with all the Rioting/Looting/Buring in BLUE STATES should be favoring Trump but doesn’t seem to be among this demographic (raising the question of if the “it can’t/won’t happen here” osterich mentaility could be occuring within this subgroup)!
ALSO: I was Interviewed by another (Female) Reporter regarding the same Survey, and I “assumed” (yup, as the saying goes) it was for a Story for today’s (Fri 9/18) Publication also but it does not appear and was/is likely therefore for the upcoming (much more hefty size/scope) Sunday issue! If it was indeed for, or moved to, Sat or Sun issue (I’ll try to keep my eye out) I will try and do an UPDATE to this Article. WHAT IS CLEAR, though, is that HER STORY is going to delve into matters other than the SURVEY DATA and opinions on/over BIDEN/TRUMP Race – as she specifically asked my opinion on DETROIT, PROTESTS, BLACKLIVESMATTER, etc (more on that below, even before any piece (if ever Published) is available for me to indeed directly address)!
AGAIN, to touch on the BREAKING NEWS at the top of this Article. The SCOTUS is likely to SHIFT some Votes. The make-up of the Court COULD DRASTICALLY BE SHIFTED (either toward CONSTITUTIONAL FOCUS or if replaced by Biden if elected (cementing a CENTRIST COURT for many Decades to come))!+++
[SEE RLATED ARTICLE: http://tinyurl.com/NefariousRBG]
EXPOUNDING UPON some from above and/or things I said that evidentally hit the Editors cutting room floor….
I did NOT VOTE for Trump (no, not Hillary either) in 2016, I very much looked at Trump’s PAST (yes, CHARACTER MATTERS, I said it did during Clinton, and I was not a Hypocrite about it now*****) and thoroughly expected Trump to be as bad as (just another NY Liberal) despite anything he said during the Primaries — but I very much look forward to Voting for him in 2020…. Please see related items for GREAT DETAIL:
(mainly see) OpEd – Countering the ChristianityToday Opinion piece FARCE!
(No, I do NOT always agree with POTUS45, a long list of what I do and do NOT agree with Trump on/over/with (#PRINCIPLESNOTPERSONALITIES) – see) I’m #CONSERVATIVE (1st/foremost) #Republican (2nd) – stand by any #POTUS when deserving and criticize when I feel necessary (with ANY/ALL Politicians)!
***** As for HYPOCRISY — all that has changed given the FAR LURCH LEFT of the COMMIECRATS, the RIOTING/LOOTING/BULLYING going on in the streets (literally JUST LIKE HITLER BROWN-SHIRTS (more on that – must-see-related-article – The NAZI label keeps getting tossed about – let’s examine the claim: at: /politics/2018/06/the-nazi-label-keep-getting-tossed-about-lets-examine-the-claim-3009680.html), Twitter/FascistBook CENSORSHIP of Conservatives/Republicans, #PatheticalCorruptness (what I call Political Correctness, censoring/twisting language, especially silencing Conservatives/Republicans on College Campus’ (see: https://salemnow.com/no-safe-spaces/)), etc…. I AM NOW A PROUD HYPOCRITE….
I AM NOW A #PROUD #HYPOCRITE! And, it is all the #Commiecrats’ fault! Unlike #DUMBocrats who won’t admit they are #HYPOCRITES and have no problem when someone on the Left does something they whine about if/when someone on the Right may have done the same thing, I am now a PROUD HYPOCRITE and happy to bathe myself in #HYPOCRISY! I want as many #ExecutiveOrders from #Trump (even if they are #UNCONSTITUTIONAL like many of #Obama’s – as long as they undo #COMMIECRAT POLICY of the last 5,6,7+ Decades! We must exercise what POWER/CONTROL we have, whenever we have it, for as long as we have it, to undo #Commiecratism in #USA! And, yes, again, while I used to be 100% CONSISTENTLY #PRINCIPLED and stood against ABUSE OF POWER and GOVT OVER-REACH and IMMORAL/BAD BEHAVIOR — NO LONGER (you set the example #Commiecrats, of having no standards at all, and now I’m willing to follow it) — as long as it furthers #CONSERVATIVE #VALUES / #PRINCIPLES overall and strategically for/in the long-term! Also, I will be more than happy to point out Commiecrat failures to hold up TO ANY STANDARDS AT ALL and give a Pass to the occasional Republicans that fall short of our HIGH STANDARDS!
#PrinciplesNotPersonalities — I have NEVER, EVER, agreed with any Politician 100%! Ever! There are a couple I come really close with (Patrick Colbeck, locally/Michigan; Ted Cruz; a few others). I will NEVER, EVER, be part of any CULT OF PERSONALITY! Until NOW (recently) we would have never thought in those terms, but clearly there was a massie bunch of groupies often referred to as #OBAMAzombies that shaped the 2008 and 2012 Elections. Sadly, the pendulum swung the other way in 2016, as there were a large degree of Folks clearly #TRUMPcult members (Cult of Personality, rather than issues Folks (again, like with Obama)) but this time around we also seen the rise of the other extreme: #TRUMPDERANGEMENTSYNDROME (aka: #NeverTrumpers, #RINOsForBiden, etc) folks! That seem more concerned with Personality than Policy! And, since hind-sight is always 20/20 (yes, year 2020 pun intended LOL) it is now clear there was such with the PEROT phenom and even further back those supposed “REAGAN DEMOCRATS” were likely REAGANcult (they NEVER helped to give Reagan help/control of USHouse for any of his 8 years) members (his elloquence of speech, like with Obama (and even Bill Clinton) too); his Celebrity, like with Trump (The Apprentice and TRUMP RESORTS easy name-recognition); etc…
(more on TEAParty,WalkAway,BLEXIT, in: /u-s-politics/2020/08/brandonstraka-walkaway-candiceowens-blexit-2020-and-beyond-can-they-do-what-the-teaparty-did-not-long-term-shifts-2580289.html)
TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT (ECONOMY IN GENERAL):
Remember, Trump had the advantage of having GOP Control of both USHouse and USSenate (but NOT Filibuster proof) his first two years! Remember that #ObamaBinBiden said “2% GDP GROWTH” was going to be “THE NEW NORM” forever and ever going forward. Spent their entire 8 years in Office trying to blame GWBush for THEIR BAD POLICY having created a #WRECKovery (term I coined). THE WORST AND SLOWEST ECONOMIC RECOVERY FROM A RECESSION SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION! They also said “THOSE JOBS AREN’T COMING BACK” and “WHAT IS TRUMP (and the GOP) GOING TO DO, WAVE A MAGIC WAND?” Yup, it’s called PRO GROWTH POLICY (NOT SOCIALIST MANURE POLICY) BITCH (the #TaxCutsAndJobsAct (which I would have worked a bit differently, but supported because “SHOULD NOT LET THE SEARCH FOR PERFECT, BECOME THE ENEMY OF THE GOOD”) and hence began a soaring Economy (which then, of course, Oblunder Obiden wanted credit, LOL)! And POST #WUHANVIRUS****** #RECOVERY we will again see an Economy the likes we have not seen since the OTHER #ROARING20s (1920′s)! Then, Democrats SHIFTED 35ish seats and TRANSFERED CONTROL in MidTerms2018. Hence then my “Regardless of what #Trump does the #eneMEDIA will SPIN it to favor #Democrats – What do you think of #Trumps strategy in 2019 so far?? Article…
****** related items:
1) #WuhanVirus (aka: #COVID19, #CoronaVirus-19strain. SARS-CO-V-2) ALL THE DETAILS minus the PANIC (full details, not #Twitter snippet #SPIN posts) – at: /health/2020/03/wuhanvirus-aka-covid19-coronavirus-all-the-details-minus-the-panic-full-details-not-twitter-snippet-spin-posts-3014541.html
2) YES, I know a Wuhan Virus casualty (RIP dear Friend Lisa Ewald) – please see Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iMRI4quuTE (and I’m not going to cut/paste the info here, please read the DESCRIPTION of/at the Video for far more info on Lisa, her Death, more)
3) my general/public JLenardDetroit Vlogs YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkdRA7aHCzR4xcS1WsMnJjg/videos
“DETROIT CAN’T BREATHE” (ARM OF #BlackLyingMarxists******* TERRORISTS movement):
I am SO PROUD of my Friends and Neighbors to the North (I’m Downriver, but had worked in Detroit through the 80′s and 90′s) in DETROIT!!! Chief Craig IS ABSOLUTELY FANTASTIC! I know he has been working with the DOJ/FBI under OPERATION LEGEND (Operation Legend in GENERAL – see: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=all+about+operation+legend&atb=v205-1&ia=web — Operation Legend DETROIT – see: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=operation+legend+in+Detroit+michigan&atb=v205-1&ia=web)! IMO, Trump should PRAISE DETROIT during a PressConference, for the cooperation that allows the Federal Govt (which has to be asked for assistance (like for/with NATIONAL GUARD) and/or cooperate with Federal Task Forces (like Operation Legend)) to HELP DETROIT AVOID THE RIOTING/LOOTING/BURNING of so many other Cities that are under Democrat control (and have been for Decades (including Detroit)) but Detroit because of its current STRONG LEADERS (not Biden/Pelosi/Schumer LACKIES) want PEACE AND PROSPERITY FOR DETROIT (again, thanks to CHIEF CRAIG, and as a Republican who is critical of MIKE DUGGAN often, give him CUDOS also)! They have allowed PEACEFUL PROTESTS but the minute they step over the line, and in most cases (as the Arrests show) it is WHITE LIBERALS FROM OUT OF TOWN/STATE, that begin to turn to VIOLENT TACTICS — THEY GET SHUT DOWN IMMEDIATELY AS SHOULD BE THE CASE! And, again, Thanks to the cooperation between Detroit and DC, most of these #BlackLyingMarxists TERRORISTS (Marxists that HIJACKED what was a good, honest, earnest, reasonable, just cause, BLACK LIVES MATTER movement TO BEGIN WITH) are being charged with FEDERAL CRIMES rather than being right back on the Streets to create more Mayhem (and, sadly, Kamala Harris created a FUND to BAIL OUT THESE TERRORISTS across the Nation (of which many of the #BidenHarris2020 team/staff are on Record of donating to) which we won’t know more about until official/final FCC FILINGS are made post-Election. #DemocratsCoddleCriminals (but, Thankfully NOT DETROIT DEMOCRATS) and REAL DETROITERS support our Police, Mayor, and Chief Craig, not wanting Detroit to become a Portland, Seattle, etc, BURNT SHELLS hurting it’s MOSTLY BLACK POLPULATION, NOT HELPING IT)! #BlackLivesMatter, #BlueLivesMatter, NOT EITHER/OR (I proudly display a yardsign stating my agreement with that sentiment (though, sadly, cannot disply #ALLLIVESMATTER (including UNBORN (see related – Is it RACIST for a White Man to Carry a Sign Referring to “Colored People” at a “naaCP” (emphasis “CP”) Event (Made for Him by a Black Woman)? A PROLIFE anti BLACKGENOCIDE by PlannedSlaughterhood story – at: /protests-demonstrations/2019/11/is-it-racist-for-a-white-man-to-carry-a-sign-referring-to-colored-people-at-a-naacp-emphasis-cp-event-made-for-him-by-a-black-woman-2458619.html)) as it has been SICKLY DISTORTED AND TWISTED******** INTO SOMETHING VILE WHICH THAT SIMPLE CLEAR STATEMENT IS NOT)! ALL LIVES MATTER, anyone insisting that a QUALIFER be put on “LIVES MATTER” is A RACIST (for Black), or SEXIST (Female), or whatever other FALSE NARRATIVES DISTINCTION (TO DIVIDE, as Democrats playing #IdentityPolitics ALWAYS DO)! The Left must ALWAYS attempt to TWIST/DISTORT LANGUAGE******** into things unrecognizable to REDFINE (like REDISTRIBUTE) TERMS in order to control discussions they otherwise cannot Win (ALL LIVES MATTER is ALL INCLUSIVE, by definition NOT RACIST). And any BLUE LIVES MATTER signs, which I see many, IT IS IMPLIED “ALSO” NOT “EXCLUSIVELY” (only a complete MORON (and there are far too many fellow Americans that are MORONS hyped up by the Left with EMOTIONAL HYSTERICS rather than REASONED THOUGHT, COMMON SENSE, LOGIC, these days) though we had such sign previously and Folks DESTROYED THEM)!
******* Black Lying Marxists – more, see: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Black+Lives+Matter+Founders+admitted+marxists&atb=v205-1&ia=web
(also – IN THEIR OWN WORDS (ENDLESS VIDEOS)): https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Black+Lives+Matter+Founders+admitted+marxists
Of course BLACK LIVES MATTER, but only certain ones do to the #BlackLyingMarxistsTERRORISTS leaders, those that can peddle their POLICE ARE SLAUGHTERING UNARMED BLACK MEN (which STATISTICALLY IS FALSE (DOJ/FBI data shows, Harvard Study shows, etc…. see: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=statistics+disprove+the+police+brutality+narrative&atb=v205-1&ia=web) and are SILENT about the endless slaughter every weekend in Chicago and/or including UNBORN BLACK CHILDREN SLAUGHTERED BY PLANNED PARENTHOOD DAILY (see related – Is it RACIST for a White Man to Carry a Sign Referring to “Colored People” at a “naaCP” (emphasis “CP”) Event (Made for Him by a Black Woman)? A PROLIFE anti BLACKGENOCIDE by PlannedSlaughterhood story – at: /protests-demonstrations/2019/11/is-it-racist-for-a-white-man-to-carry-a-sign-referring-to-colored-people-at-a-naacp-emphasis-cp-event-made-for-him-by-a-black-woman-2458619.html))!
******** Left must always twist/distort language/terms
#PatheticalCorruptness (what I call Political Correctness, censoring/twisting language) – see related items:
1) Liberals Religion is Government – their motto: Separation FROM Church TO State (how #FAKECHRISTIANS twist the Scriptures, to peddle COMMUNISM rather than CATHOLICISM (that means Biden, Pelosi, et al) – at: /religion/2019/04/liberals-religion-is-government-their-motto-separation-from-church-to-state-2-2546594.html
2) ‘The Greater Good’ — “The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Or the one” (plus, how they twist the ROBIN HOOD Children’s story too there-in) – at: /economics-and-politics/2019/04/the-greater-good-the-needs-of-the-many-outweigh-the-needs-of-the-few-or-the-one-2518275.html
3) FAIR? Depends on what the meaning of “IS” is again! Clinton / Orwellian NEWspeak! – at: /u-s-politics/2019/05/fair-back-to-clinton-speak-it-now-all-depends-upon-the-definition-of-what-is-is-again-2578059.html
One cant be #Christian & a (let alone #Vote) #Democrat
NOT just about their #BabyKilling #Bloodlust
#Democrats are #Socialists
“Each must give as Decided in Heart not reluctantly or compulsion” 2COR9:7
IRREFUTABLE details in: /religion/2019/04/liberals-religion-is-government-their-motto-separation-from-church-to-state-2-2546594.html
And this whole #DEFUNDTHEPOLICE manure is shown to be just that (see – Four in Five BLACKS want the same amount (OR MORE) Police protections in their Community (as they know it would be them suffer the most otherwise) at: https://freebeacon.com/national-security/four-in-five-black-americans-want-same-or-more-cop-presence-in-neighborhood/ur-in-five-black-americans-want-same-or-more-cop-presence-in-neighborhood/)! You’ll notice those mostly calling for #DEFUNDTHEPOLICE are Commiecrat Party ELITES that have their own Special Security details and/or LIVE BEHIND SECURE GATED COMMUNITIES (that often have their own Private Security Forces) and thereby would NOT really effect them – but would disproportionally HARM THE URBAN COMMUNITIES CITIZENS (predonminately Black) that they try to pretend to care the most about (at least, every 2 years when it comes time for demoKKKrats to pander for their Vote))! And, again, MAJORITY OF BLACKS UNDERSTAND THAT, as already outlined above, and 4 in 5 want SAME OR MORE LEOs PATROLING, NOT LESS!
Remember: Joe Biden says he does NOT want to #DefundThePolice, only but when pressed in any of the very few Interviews he does concedes YES I WANT TO “REDISTRIBUTE” and/or “REDIRECT” FUNDS (usual #ReDistribution scheme/scam) FROM POLICE to other priorities! (tweet: https://twitter.com/JLenardDetroit/status/1306780837283856391?s=20)
OK, I’m going to your Employer to have them “REDIRECT” your paycheck to my Bank Account – but I’m not defunding you! WOULD ANYBODY BUY THAT BULL**** TWIST OF THE LANGUAGE?!?!? Reducing Funds, IS DEFUNDING (to some extent or another, but not entirely)! Even here in Michigan – Governor #WHITLER (as we call her) has reduced the State Police of Michigan Budget by $100M, all the while making them her PRIVATE MASK MANDATE ENFORCEMENT ARM rather than having them DUE THEIR REAL “SERVE AND PROTECT” ENFORCE REAL/EXISTING LAWS (and her Mandates are UNCONSTITUTIONAL EXECUTIVE ORDERS, NOT enacted Laws)! That and more in – /u-s-politics/2020/08/usual-liberal-doublestandards-enemedia-rhetoric-kanyes-attack-v-dementiajoes-hide-health-2580286.html .
From a Tweet: I am 1 of #TheMighty200 – Joseph M Lenard (@JLenardDetroit) Aug 31
#JoeBiden today: “Do I look like a #Radical #Socialist w/ a soft spot for #Rioters?”
lol, look like? What u R is 50yr #SWAMPCREATURE w/ LUST 4 #POWER, willing 2 stay #SILENT (rem, #SILENCEISVIOLENCE) abt #BidenRiots UNTIL #POLLS abt them SHIFTED AGAINST U!
From another tweet: I am 1 of #TheMighty200 – Joseph M Lenard (@JLenardDetroit) Aug 30
NEW #BIDENHARRIS2020 FARCE
#JoeBiden “condemns” #Violence, calls #Trump do same
WHERE F*** U BEEN LAST 80 DAYS #BIDEN?
#Trump condemned it long ago, offered Help, #Commiecrats REJECT (& fuel #RIOTING / #LOOTING)
Rpt #CHARLOTTESVILLE #LIES AGAIN
I am 1 of #TheMighty200 – Joseph M Lenard @JLenardDetroit Sep 15
lol, #Biden #Harris #BidenHarris2020, #PatternOfLies
#Clinton, #TaxTheRich – reality everyone > $30k
#ObamaBiden, same lies, same outcome
#Obiden…. same S***, different day!
ARE YOU REALLY THAT STUPID TO FALL FOR IT AGAIN?
The Wall Street Journal @WSJ Sep 10
Joe Biden wants to raise taxes to pay for an agenda that includes fighting climate change and expanding child care. We look at how the Democratic presidential candidate’s tax plan would affect individual households. https://on.wsj.com/2FqsUaN
I am 1 of #TheMighty200 – Joseph M Lenard @JLenardDetroit Sep 2
been there, done that
Same #BillClinton #LIES, raised #Taxes on all > $30k!
Same with #ObamaBiden!
If anyone is SO #STUPID to buy these same #LIES again, they deserve what they’ll get (the rest of us aren’t that #DUMB)!
#JoeBiden WILL RAISE YOUR #TAX! PERIOD!
Brian Klaas @brianklaas Sep 2
Biden wants to raise taxes on Americans who make more than $400,000 a year. (And as you might have guessed, 82% of Americans do not make $400,000 a year, so this is a lie). twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr…
AND, STILL YET ANOTHER ASIDE ABOUT MIDTERMS2018 AND #ELECTION2020…
YES, NOW VERY MUCH LEAVING ANALYSIS AND GETTING EVEN HEAVIER INTO MY OWN OPINION….
Take Back The USA – C.Daniels
Some need to WAKE UP! This is NOT just about #TRUMP!!!
Sorry if this applies to anyone reading this, but….
I am VERY DISAPPOINTED by the thousands of Folks that travel the #USA to attend #TrumpRallies DEPRIVING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALS TO ATTEND! Since you clearly have $100′s of un-needed and excess disposable Funds, instead send the money your Spending to travel about to the #Rallies to the many GOOD #CONSERVATIVE #CANDIDATES (TO HELP US UNSEAT SOME #RINOs / #CINOs in the #GOP Primaries too) that need the #CampaignFunds to defeat #COMMIECRATS! Some of our Candidates LOSING and if we FAIL IN #GOPTAKEBACKTHEHOUSE (and potentially our needed (to kill Commiecrat Fillibusters) #GOPUSSENATESUPERMAJORITY) then alot of the Blame will fall on your BAD JUDGEMENT and unwillingness to Help when/where REALLY needed (at Local Candidate Fundraisers and Rallies as the #Trump Rallies are always going to be HUGE w/o you denying Locals their chance)!
There is one thing and one thing only that will get #USA back on track! That is #USCitizens giving #Trump2020Landslide, #GOPTakeTheHouse (swing min 50 #USHouse seats from Blue to Red), #GOPUSSenateSuperMajority2020, oust several #Commiecrat Mayors/Governors! There is only one thing that will even create the chance of any Democrats shaping up and doing right by their constituents and that is the clear message/THREAT that THEY COULD LOSE THEIR JOB NEXT!
I did NOT VOTE for Trump (no, not Hillary either) in 2016, but I very much look forward to Voting for him in 2020…. Please see related items for GREAT DETAIL:
(mainly see) OpEd – Countering the ChristianityToday Opinion piece FARCE!
(No, I do NOT always agree with POTUS45 – see) I’m #CONSERVATIVE (1st/foremost) #Republican (2nd) – stand by any #POTUS when deserving and criticize when I feel necessary (with ANY/ALL Politicians)!
(a brief review of Trump to 2019 and question) Regardless of what #Trump does the #eneMEDIA will SPIN it to favor #Democrats – What do you think of #Trumps strategy in 2019 so far??
(what effect will #WalkAway and #BLEXIT have 2020 and beyond? – see: Brandon Straka (WalkAway) & Candace Owens (BLEXIT), 2020 and Beyond! Can They Do What the Tea Party Did Not (Long Term Shifts)?
(and, you will NOT get REALITY OF #VOTERFRAUD from #ENEMEdia SPIN outlets – see) Never-ending efforts of #Democrats to control/manipulate #Elections via #VoterFraud!
(and) Election Voter Fraud Will Become More and More Rampant and Blatant, We’re Already Seeing it in Florida and Michigan
(and) Exposing the Lefts LIES that #VoterFraud never happens….
(for my fellow #Michiganians, Gary Wellings DAILY DRIFT PODCAST Audio (various topics, WuhanVirus, Whitmer, Elections, much more)) #TheDrift (with #GaryWellings) Podcast: #WuhanVirus (National/Local) and all things #Michigan #Politics
and general list of all my most recent Articles via BeforeItsNews: /contributor/pages/392/034/stories.html
I was the WRITING COMMITTEE CHAIR of RATTLE WITH US TEAParty (SEMi) and you can see many of the TEAParty Articles (that ported over to B4IN) of which I am the Author of several but many other great Authors and pieces too at: /contributor/pages/68/448/stories.html
ALSO SEE MY LATEST FROM YESTERDAY (Thu 9/17/2020)….
#Election2020 – Same Lies, Different Day! (As the Who song says: Won’t Be Fooled Again (I hope you won’t)) | U. S. Politics | Before It’s News /u-s-politics/2020/09/election2020-same-lies-different-day-as-the-who-song-says-wont-be-fooled-again-i-hope-you-wont-2580386.html
#Biden #Trump #Harris #Pence #BidenHarris2020 #TrumpPence2020 #WalkAway? #BLEXIT? #Lexit? #RepublicansForBiden?
It’s almost here!
#DineshDSouza’s new MUST SEE #Film!
Was supposed to be released to #Theaters in Aug
delayed til Sep – NOW GOING DIRECT TO PPV (or pre-purchase a DVD copy)!
+++ [BREAKING NEWS: As I typed this Article announced: SCOTUS JUSTICE RUTH BADER GINSBURG has Died at age 87. This is likely to COMPLETELY SHIFT SOME VOTES, including potentially several within this Poll/Survey I am about to address. The next SCOTUS nominee will now JUMP WAY UP THE LIST OF CONCERNS of many, as it will be a determing factor of the Court makeup -- whether it will remain having 4 heavily Liberal Activist leaning members, or swing more toward STRICT CONSTITUTIONALISM (with Roberts being far more Moderate these Days)!]
Even RBG (at University of Chicago) admitted ROEVWADE (RVW) did NOT establish a RIGHT TO ABORTION (it was decided on PRIVACY ISSUES) and only Liberal Activist lower Courts grossly over-reached and expanded the Ruling… That and much more on the RVW/PROLIFE issue in:
The shaky ground (RoeVWade) that the Abortion structure was/is built upon (destroying the Left’s false narratives) [2020 update: Like Trump, Hate Trump, IT NO LONGER MATTERS!!! You MUST #GOTV for TRUMP, the balance of the SCOTUS for Decades, potentially LIFETIMES, to come is now IN THE BALANCE and whether there will FINALLY BE A PROPER 14TH AMENDMENT LIFE ISSUE HEARD IN REGARD TO ABORTION (and likely returned to States under 10A)]
To The Law on Saturday Jul 07 2018 12:15
Gosnell Jurors put the LIE to the ProChoice meme and what really occurs in Abortion Clinics
[Democrats attempting to LEGALIZE #INFANTICIDE, what Gosnell is in-part behind Bars for]
To Healthcare on Monday Oct 22 2018 10:24
[related PROLIFE Article (don't let the Title throw you)] Is it RACIST for a White Man to Carry a Sign Referring to “Colored People” at a “naaCP” (emphasis “CP”) Event (Made for Him by a Black Woman)?
To Protests & Demonstrations on Monday Nov 18 2019 23:31
[again, don't let the Title throw you, this is about Protesting ABORTION and naaCP support and FINANCIAL AID to Planned Slaughterhood]
(Kennedy retire impacted MidTerms2018, RGB vacancy will MOST CERTAINLY now effect 2020)
SCOTUS Justice Kennedy retirement and MidTerms2018 impact?
To The Law on Wednesday Jun 27 2018 14:56
Should Thomas/Alito (both aging) retire in 2019 to assure Trump picks their replacement and Constitutional centered Court for several Decades to come?
To Republican on Monday Jul 09 2018 09:37
As a staunch CONSERVATIVE: Why I oppose Justice Kavanaugh for SCOTUS
To Republican on Tuesday Jul 10 2018 14:16
Conservatives…. TEAParty activists…. When/Where are you willing to Stand and Fight?
[2020 update: Like Trump, Hate Trump, IT NO LONGER MATTERS!!! You MUST #GOTV for TRUMP, the balance of the SCOTUS for Decades, potentially LIFETIMES, to come is now IN THE BALANCE!]
To Opinion – Conservative on Thursday Aug 09 2018 00:59
REGARDS from NoMoTown (The MOTORlessCITY since Democrats took control several Decades ago)
Joseph Lenard (@JLenardDetroit) across all Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, MeWe, Spreely, PolitiChatter, Parler, GAB, Minds) Platforms
I am 1 of #TheMighty200 of #Twitter (targeted by Hillary and Politico in 2016): https://tinyurl.com/TheMighty200Targeted
(bet you didn’t know you knew a somewhat minor internet celebrity influencer – YOU DO) LOL
The whole story behind me being 1 of #TheMighty200 targeted by #Politico (& #HillaryClinton) on Twitter in 2016 (the start of the #RussianBots / #RussianCollusion #FalseNarratives): /u-s-politics/2020/04/politico-targeted-me-jlenarddetroit-other-conservatives-on-twitter-the-russianbots-russianhoax-falsenarratives-origins-2016-2579963.html
[UPDATE: SAT SEP 19, 2020....
I just sat down to put together my (ROUGH DRAFT) RGB SCOTUS SEAT TALKING-POINTS THOUGHTS down (into a Word Document) to get my thoughts together further on the IMPACT of the RGB death and SCOTUS vacancy and realized as I went along -- THERE ARE FAR MORE RAMIFICATIONS THAN JUST THIS ELECTION CYCLE....
Here (as of 11am 19Sep, as they are likely to even grow further) are those thoughts
WOW, RGB's death really going to shake up this Election!!
I have slight SPIN/Unique-take on it....
I'd love to TIE the two stories (RGB's death and POLLS, and even a 3rd included below) together (two of the 3 Articles I previously sent (and attached again/still as part of the (edited/expanded) FWD email attached))....
* RBG empty seat (rather ABORTION ISSUE FRONT&CENTER) now LEADING ELECTION ISSUE (what does, or does NOT happen betw now and Election aside+)
* All Polls to this point MOOT
* Many/most will now have SCOTUS seat as TOP PRIORITY of their CONCERNS LIST (and what does or does NOT happen in these next few Days regarding such)
*(+) In the EPIC/MRI MI Poll I was involved in, Trump only had +6 lead in so-called ENTHUSIASM GAP. THIS WILL CHANGE, for the better or worse is the question?!?! Democrats will now say SEE WHAT HAPPENED BY YOU NOT VOTING HILLARY (cost us Garland to replace Scalia, Kennedy retirement (see sub-link in my RBG Article on that/this) help drive MidTerms2018 (though did NOT ultimately help Dems get USSenate (may change this time GOP has far more seats to defend this cycle)), and now maybe this RBG seat) as MAJOR MOTIVATOR to light a Fire under Folks other-wise LUKE-WARM on Biden and drive them to the Polls. Q: Will it FINALLY GET SOME NEVER-TRUMPERS to reconsider and/or drive up Trump's ENTHUSIASM NUMBERS?!?!? Any REAL CHRISTIAN (related: /religion/2019/04/liberals-religion-is-government-their-motto-separation-from-church-to-state-2-2546594.html) MUST BE PROLIFE (or is FAKE CHRISTIAN LIKE BIDEN) and this should be major motivator for Trump now?!?!
* If Biden elected and they get USHouse and USSenate control, Dems will follow thru on THREAT TO PACK THE SCOTUS (expand it to 13-15 Justices to regain control)!
* (as the saying in Sales goes: BUT THERE’S MORE) They won’t STOP there! With SCOTUS control they will then ram through DC STATE-HOOD (must be done w/ Liberal Activist Court, cause DC was/is separate and cannot CONSTITUTIONALLY become a State (which, with SCOTUS control, they will IGNORE / OVERTURN) as well as shove Statehood of PEURTO RICO down their throats (despite them having Voted SEVERAL TIMES to turn down Statehood) in order to ensure an almost certain FOUR MORE DEMOCRAT USSENATE SEATS and likely permanent control for Dems of USSenate (as well as at least 3 more Dem USHouse seats)!
*And, of course, this would effect POTUS Races to come as would add a few ELECTORAL COLLEGE points/opportunities to the system and those likely automatic BLUE STATE column (certainties like a few of the smaller NE States, but they all still add up)! NOT TO FORGET TO MENTION their likelihood to JOIN POPULAR VOTE COMPACT and help drive that movement! (which, of course, is VIOLATION OF CONSTITUTION, to over-turn EC requires a CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT, but (of course) Dems don’t give a DAMN about the Constitution (only pay it lip-service when they can twist it for a convenient argument of theirs)!
* Everyone with Twitter Account MUST FLOOD the TL/FEED of Romney, Murkowski, and Susan Collins, with #FILLTHESEAT tag, to try and get those squishes to grow a SPINE and ensure Trump then can/does appoint Amy Comey Barrett and the USSenate RAMS HER APPROVAL THROUGH POST-HASTE! Even though it may cost us the Collins seat (she is up this cycle, and she already has grief for her Kavanaugh Vote) but we can hopefully offset that loss by taking PETERS seat by electing JOHN JAMES (which is currently a basic TOSS UP (Freep Reports GAP NARROWING, Peters lead nearly now non-existent (within MOE)) or removing Freshman Dem Doug Jones (AL)!
* If isn't #NotoriousACB (Amy) to replace #Nefarious #RBG, must be: #Amul Roger Thapar, #USA #CircuitCourt #Judge of #US #CourtOfAppeals for #SixthCircuit. First South #Asian federal judge in #American history. Watch Dem #IdentityPolitics HEADS EXPLODE
* If TED CRUZ gets elevated to SCOTUS, we could potentially then get ALLEN WEST appointed to his USSenate seat! That would be a plus! With a 2nd GOP USSenate member being a Black man, would be a big plus in our WalkAway and BLEXIT movement battles (as well as then for JOHN JAMES to be potentially 3rd Black GOP Senator.
* RE: #IdentityPolitics --- If u aint FIGHTING any Battle, u'v SURRENDERED IT #Commiecrats have been Fighting #IdentityPolitics WAR against us 4 Decades (again, ur unwillingness 2 FIGHT FIRE W/ FIRE @ times is just SURRENDER) #BLEXIT is happening, would on steroids if were smarter
If u aint FIGHTING any Battle, u'v SURRENDERED IT #Commiecrats have been Fighting #IdentityPolitics WAR against us 4 Decades (again, ur unwillingness 2 FIGHT FIRE W/ FIRE @ times is just SURRENDER) #BLEXIT's hapning, would on steroids w/ #Amul (I pref ACB)
----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Joseph M. Lenard (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Sent: Friday, September 18, 2020, 10:31:34 PM EDT
Subject: several IMPORTANT items in the News
BREAKING NEWS: SCOTUS Justice RuthBaderGinsberg has Died at age 87. | The Law | Before It's News /the-law/2020/09/breaking-news-scotus-justice-ruth-bader-ginsberg-has-died-at-age-87-2458419.html (has many relevant related sub-topics/sub-links there-in, inc Kennedy/Scalia replacements ultra significance now, shaky ground of RVW, more)
Can we trust Polling Results? I still don't know, but I finally was called for a Survey this Election cycle! | U. S. Politics | Before It's News /u-s-politics/2020/09/can-we-trust-polling-results-i-still-dont-know-but-i-finally-was-called-for-a-survey-this-election-cycle-2580391.html
lastly (less relevant now):
Election2020 - Same Lies, Different Day! (As the Who song says: Won't Be Fooled Again (I hope you won't)) | U. S. Politics | Before It's News /u-s-politics/2020/09/election2020-same-lies-different-day-as-the-who-song-says-wont-be-fooled-again-i-hope-you-wont-2580386.html
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